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@Dibble
This is where his argument fails.
However the Russians have a National myth of victory via massive sacrifice and may choose to lose their way to victory as they did in WWII. Taking casualties at a rate of between 1:7 and. 1:3 against the Germans.
Or it might be 1917 a collapse of the army and revolution at home. Maybe Olaf Scholz isn’t dicking around trying not to send help to Ukraine hoping for a gentle Russian regime change but is secretly preparing another sealed train.