Russian invasion of Ukraine

Im interested i what happens post agreement, specifically to Russia.
Outside of the terrible human cost of this war the focus is now on stronger ties within Europe and an acceleration of reducing the use of Russian oil/gas.
Putin has fucked himself and his country, i hope they remain toxic and even more marginalised as they sit there and watch half the world help rebuild and want to do business with Ukraine while his own country sits there with no chance of any further military incursions, a pissed off population and the dawning realisation that nobody outside China, Cuba, Venezuela and India want to buy your shit or do business with you.

what a legacy.

Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity once before.
Russia=scumbag who can’t be trusted

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nobody outside China, Cuba, Venezuela and India

That's almost half the world's population right there. Russia isn't going to be that upset if they buy their stuff

Russia guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity once before.

Budapest memorandum was signed by the UK and USA as well so in my opinion it's enough for them to interfere in this war.

And if they don't - they shouldn't be trusted as well.

and they buy bananas, cigars, plastic tat and weapons in return.
thats a win yeah?

and not forgetting the talent migration/brain drain thats already started, the remaining population will now have to wean itself of decent cars/technology and many other trappings of the west they have got used to.
back to the good old days of the USSR.

as they sit there and watch half the world help rebuild and want to do business with Ukraine

I'm afraid that might be one of the main reasons they invaded - they just can't see democracies flourish right next to them, especially when they were on the same page not long ago.

Ex soviet countries doing well most probably is bigger threat to Putin's regime than anything else.

I'm afraid they dragged Ukraine back to dirt eradicating decades of development and economic growth but I hope I'm wrong.

I'm also afraid they won't leave it alone - they'll keep on poking it or destabilise it by creating some internal conflicts amongst folk to point them away from the EU and western values.

That's what they've been doing quite successfully in Lithuania - there's been a movement to protest against pretty much anything but the people are always the same and the point is always that the west and their values are rotten, we need to exit eu and so on and so on.

Budapest memorandum......

You're misrepresenting it - it was explicitly not a mutual defence agreement. As for interference; fortunately, that has turned into a rather grey area; Zelenskyy has been using the competencies developed in his previous life rather successfully - unfortnately it's not at all clear whether that will be enough., and obviously cannot undo the catastrophe that has already occurred.

I'm afraid that might be one of the main reasons they invaded - they just can't see democracies flourish right next to them, especially when they were on the same page not long ago.

Ex soviet countries doing well most probably is bigger threat to Putin's regime than anything else.

Possibly to most of this. These are not new ideas (there aren't many), and there may be elements of them in Putin's mind, but the "used to be on the same page" is almost certainly a potent factor. Much of Ukraine's post-USSR history is not pleasant; a familiar tale of a big chunk of the population being decent people hoping for and trying to reach a better future, thwarted by the extraordinary corruption of another chunk; that corruption aided by the Nelson's Eye of so many in other countries.

Absolutely every single player has been completely wrong-footed and that means chaos - indefinitely.

Listened to many, many hours of this guy’s in depth history of the Isreal-Palestine situation. He’s done a one-off on Ukraine. A well researched run down with a very different slant to the mass media story. This has probably all been covered here but interesting none the less.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-martyrmade-podcast/id978322714?i=1000553897203

Not big, not clever, but my weekend wear (alfa slab 1 is the font if anyone is interested, feel free to copy).

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Can not imagine what it must be like living in Russia and this is what you are getting fed
https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762

Yeah this is very good.
I think the US/NATO had been provoking Russia for years with talk about Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO or the EU. I seriously doubt Ukraine or Georgia would have ever been given membership anyway but they of course should be able to express that wish without fear of being fucking invaded.

But it’s almost like the US/NATO didn’t really take Putins threats seriously or understand how important it was to him that Georgia and Ukraine weren’t to join NATO.

Putin has absolutely fucked it. I’m really amazed that it’s been so miscalculated. That not one person in the Kremlin could stand up and tell him what fucking bad idea this is. Now he has to try save face in anyway possible but the damage has already been done. Damage that will realistically take decades to fix.
I really hope for massive political change in Russia but it’s not going to come for at least a couple of generations.

The horrors of Mariupol

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-mariupol-descends-into-despair-708cb8f4a171ce3f1c1b0b8d090e38e3

Could be fake social media accounts set up by Russian state-sponsored trolls, who portray themselves as Indian or Serbian in order to give the impression that there are countries whose population supports the Russian invasion.

Ukraine is a long way from Nato membership, especially with the likes of the Azov battalion being incorporated into the army.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

It’s not a purge!
It’s self purification.

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an hour long but if you want to skip the technical analysis of air defence systems then the last 10min is worth a listen if only for the reasons why Nato should not bet involved in policing the skies over Ukraine.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iBARgW_vHVE&feature=youtu.be

"self-purification of society" - what a terrible foreshadowing of what he intends to do next either in territory they conquer or at home or both

Lots of twitter stuff but for a longer write up about one of the battles, this is quite an interesting read.

(Non-paywalled WSJ scrape)

https://archive.ph/20220317045256/https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734

For some time Azov has been problematic for Ukraine and I'm sure privately a lot of their allies are puzzled as to why they don't deal with it. The official line that they "only" have 10-20% of their members that are neo-nazi isn't helping and whilst I understand having a motivated volunteer regiment to help in Donbas was a big deal (even more so now), sooner or later it's going to harm them internationally.

Esra Kleine
https://open.spotify.com/show/3oB5noYIwEB2dMAREj2F7S?si=yeQ8gxHURdqcIuZZQKlGSg&utm_source=copy-link

is really good on this with his recent interviews.

The tl;dr is that we in the west make the mistake of viewing this through a geopolitical lense as it is what we are comfortable with.

"self-purification of society"

known as brain drain in the west

Good link.

lets hope it is more brain drain and less gulag archipelago

Умом Россию не понять,
Аршином общим не измерить:
У ней особенная стать —
В Россию можно только верить.

No, Russia can't be understood
With mind or held to common standard:
Her stature is unique for good -
Just faith in her is all we're granted.

And that's where the west fails imho - trying to understand and deal with Russia using common sense.