Russian invasion of Ukraine

FT reporting a tentaive neutrality plan has been drawn up: https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

Sorry, paywalled got the link of twitter and there wasn't a paywall: https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1504098983895080965

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if
Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces,
according to three people involved in the talks.

The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed
in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing
its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military
bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the
US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

The nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their
acceptability to Moscow — could yet prove to be a big obstacle to any
deal, as could the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia
and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian
security failed to prevent Russian aggression against its neighbour.

Although Moscow and Kyiv both said that they had made progress on the
terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials remain sceptical Russian
president Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that
Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its
offensive. Putin showed no sign of compromise on Wednesday, vowing
Moscow would achieve all of its war aims in Ukraine.

“We will never allow Ukraine to become a stronghold of aggressive
actions against our country,” he said.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr
Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the
troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of
Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely
southern regions along the Azov and Black seas, as well as territory
to the east and north of Kyiv.

Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay
outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting
foreign military bases on its territory.

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that
neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden was a
possibility.

“This option is really being discussed now, and is one that can be
considered neutral,” said Peskov.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that “absolutely
specific wordings” were “close to being agreed” in the negotiations.

Despite the progress in peace talks, Ukrainian cities came under heavy
shelling for a third consecutive night while Kyiv said it was
launching a counter-offensive against Russian invaders.

In a virtual address to members of Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky
pleaded for the US to enforce a no-fly zone or provide fighter jets or
other means to fend off Russia’s attack on his country, and impose
harsher economic sanctions on Moscow.

In a dramatic appeal, Zelensky said Ukraine needed America’s support
after Russia had launched a “brutal offensive against our values”. He
called on Americans to remember the attacks on Pearl Harbor and of
September 2001 and showed a searing video of the missile attacks and
shelling destroying Ukrainian cities.

Though Ukraine’s constitution commits it to seek membership of Nato,
Zelensky and his aides have increasingly played down Ukraine’s chances
of joining the transatlantic military alliance, a prospect that Russia
sees as a provocation. Volodymyr Zelensky, pictured on a screen,
addresses the US Congress on Wednesday US Congress members applaud
during Zelensky’s virtual address on Wednesday © Scott
Applewhite/Pool/AP

“There is no effective system of European security now, which would be
moderated by Nato. As soon as a serious war began in Europe, Nato
quickly stepped aside,” Podolyak said.

“We propose a ‘Ukrainian model of security guarantees’, which implies
the immediate and legally verified participation of a number of
guarantor countries in the conflict on the side of Ukraine, if someone
again encroaches on its territorial integrity,” he added.

Ukraine, Podolyak added, would as part of any deal “definitely retain
its own army”. He also played down the significance of a ban on
foreign bases in Ukraine, saying that was already precluded by
Ukrainian law.

Two of the people said the putative deal also included provisions on
enshrining rights for the Russian language in Ukraine, where it is
widely spoken though Ukrainian is the only official language. Russia
has framed its invasion as an attempt to protect Russian speakers in
Ukraine from what it claims is “genocide” by “neo-Nazis”. Recommended
Rachman Review podcast20 min listen What would a Ukraine peace deal
look like? new 40 minutes ago

Podolyak said “humanitarian issues, including language issues, are
discussed only through the prism of Ukraine’s exclusive interests”.

The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine
recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two
separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region.

Ukraine has so far refused but was willing to compartmentalise the
issue, Podolyak said.

“Disputed and conflict territories [are] in a separate case. So far,
we are talking about a guaranteed withdrawal from the territories that
have been occupied since the start of the military operation on
February 24,” when Russia’s invasion began, he said.

Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, whose nation has sought to
play a role as a mediator in the conflict, echoed hopes that
negotiations could bear fruit after a meeting with Lavrov.

“I’m not going to go into the details on behalf of the two countries
but I know that there are convergences between them,” Cavusoglu said.

However, UK defence minister Ben Wallace expressed scepticism about
Russia’s commitment to diplomacy.

“There is a massive information campaign going on in this conflict,
this war, and certainly when it comes to Russia you need to judge them
on their actions and not on their numerous words.”

Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in Ankara and Henry Foy in
Brussels