Russian invasion of Ukraine

I live 100 yards from that for ages and could never even get 3G.

One of the masts (and equipment room) on Shooters Hill is for sale at the moment. £325k if you're interested. Maybe you've spotted an opportunity there :D

Movie pitch is "First 20 minutes of Saving Private Ryan but with drone cams"

I would expect it to be much, much worse.

I mean, I'm just quoting from wikipedia but have we seen any of this from Russia lately?

You also have to take into account that all of these things have to happen under continual zeroed artillery, mortar and rocket bombardment.

Since the 20th century an amphibious landing of troops on a beachhead is acknowledged as the most complex of all military maneuvers. The undertaking requires an intricate coordination of numerous military specialties, including air power, naval gunfire, naval transport, logistical planning, specialized equipment, land warfare, tactics, and extensive training in the nuances of this maneuver for all personnel involved.

I've checked a few Odessa webcams and they are either down for security reasons or waiting for the Pay Per View event to start

I'm going to make a guess and say that this amphibious landing force is just there to tie up Ukrainian soldiers and hardware to weaken their inland forces and that they aren't actually planning on attempting a landing.

He even went to so far as to stack the odds 80% in Ukraine's favour if anybody is stupid enough to try, in his opinion of course.

Fairly safe prediction to make. Unlikely to be disproved unless Mr Putin has half a dozen attempts.

Not sure if it's relatable to eastern europeans only but this really cracked me up

1 Attachment

Russian vodka imports will be subject to a 35 per cent tariff in the UK, as part of the new economic sanctions

panic buying or boycott?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/15/police-officer-oligarch-oleg-deripaska-belgravia-london

One of the masts (and equipment room) on Shooters Hill is for sale at the moment. £325k if you're interested.

Here ?
I live next door in The Old Fire Station.

1 Attachment

Russians casually kidnapped another mayor of yet another city.

Skadovsk has a population of 17000 inhabitants, I wonder what's the point of kidnapping mayors of these small towns.

I assume it's some kind of trophy?

Does anyone know what happens to them? Gulag?

Turncoats can be valuable I suppose. Trying to source the Ukrainian Kadyrov.

Is that Jamie at The Gherkin?

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/08/albanian-capital-renames-street-by-russian-embassy-free-ukraine/

Yeah, lovely bloke, he's back in the UK now but heading back again shortly.

My understanding of politics/geo-politics is basic at best and usually follows what I see as logic/common sense. What on Earth can Russia possibly gain from this position (financial? Reputation? Influence (again for what?). Surely, if it's territory to exploit natural resources, this will pale into significance when considering the current financial losses and given decades of international sanctions they will be hit with. Is it simply one man's megalomaniacal dick-swinging or is there another belief different to mine that will give the Russian state/population tangible or even intangible benefit? Again, appreciate I might be completely naive, possibly insensitive but usually 'baddies' have a motive of some sort regardless of how frowned upon it is by others.

I think Putin genuinely thought he was kicking off USSR 2, and that the decadent West was too divided and confused to stop him after two decades of his Loki-esque fuckery.

Unfortunately for him, he seems to have been poorly informed about the Russian and Ukranian armed forces’ relative abilities, NATO/‘the West’s willingness to stand up to him, and Ukrainian farmers’ yen for retro-Soviet lawn ornaments. Even worse, he seems not to have told any of his underlings that he wasn’t bluffing, and therefore nobody told him that an invasion would be disastrous.

The most recent Ezra Klein podcast is great in this regard; Timothy Snyder giving his analysis of Putin's position. To Snyder it's really down to the quirks inside Putin's mind, not a tactical move. And it's less about the old USSR, the Communists were way too accommodating to non-Russians for Putin's liking, and more about good old Tsarist greatness where all the little countries and various minority ethic groups around Russia knew who was the boss.

FT reporting a tentaive neutrality plan has been drawn up: https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1

Sorry, paywalled got the link of twitter and there wasn't a paywall: https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1504098983895080965

Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if
Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces,
according to three people involved in the talks.

The proposed deal, which Ukrainian and Russian negotiators discussed
in full for the first time on Monday, would involve Kyiv renouncing
its ambitions to join Nato and promising not to host foreign military
bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the
US, UK and Turkey, the people said.

The nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security — and their
acceptability to Moscow — could yet prove to be a big obstacle to any
deal, as could the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia
and its proxies in 2014. A 1994 agreement underpinning Ukrainian
security failed to prevent Russian aggression against its neighbour.

Although Moscow and Kyiv both said that they had made progress on the
terms of a deal, Ukrainian officials remain sceptical Russian
president Vladimir Putin is fully committed to peace and worry that
Moscow could be buying time to regroup its forces and resume its
offensive. Putin showed no sign of compromise on Wednesday, vowing
Moscow would achieve all of its war aims in Ukraine.

“We will never allow Ukraine to become a stronghold of aggressive
actions against our country,” he said.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr
Zelensky, told the Financial Times that any deal would involve “the
troops of the Russian Federation in any case leaving the territory of
Ukraine” captured since the invasion began on February 24 — namely
southern regions along the Azov and Black seas, as well as territory
to the east and north of Kyiv.

Ukraine would maintain its armed forces but would be obliged to stay
outside military alliances such as Nato and refrain from hosting
foreign military bases on its territory.

Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday that
neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden was a
possibility.

“This option is really being discussed now, and is one that can be
considered neutral,” said Peskov.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that “absolutely
specific wordings” were “close to being agreed” in the negotiations.

Despite the progress in peace talks, Ukrainian cities came under heavy
shelling for a third consecutive night while Kyiv said it was
launching a counter-offensive against Russian invaders.

In a virtual address to members of Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky
pleaded for the US to enforce a no-fly zone or provide fighter jets or
other means to fend off Russia’s attack on his country, and impose
harsher economic sanctions on Moscow.

In a dramatic appeal, Zelensky said Ukraine needed America’s support
after Russia had launched a “brutal offensive against our values”. He
called on Americans to remember the attacks on Pearl Harbor and of
September 2001 and showed a searing video of the missile attacks and
shelling destroying Ukrainian cities.

Though Ukraine’s constitution commits it to seek membership of Nato,
Zelensky and his aides have increasingly played down Ukraine’s chances
of joining the transatlantic military alliance, a prospect that Russia
sees as a provocation. Volodymyr Zelensky, pictured on a screen,
addresses the US Congress on Wednesday US Congress members applaud
during Zelensky’s virtual address on Wednesday © Scott
Applewhite/Pool/AP

“There is no effective system of European security now, which would be
moderated by Nato. As soon as a serious war began in Europe, Nato
quickly stepped aside,” Podolyak said.

“We propose a ‘Ukrainian model of security guarantees’, which implies
the immediate and legally verified participation of a number of
guarantor countries in the conflict on the side of Ukraine, if someone
again encroaches on its territorial integrity,” he added.

Ukraine, Podolyak added, would as part of any deal “definitely retain
its own army”. He also played down the significance of a ban on
foreign bases in Ukraine, saying that was already precluded by
Ukrainian law.

Two of the people said the putative deal also included provisions on
enshrining rights for the Russian language in Ukraine, where it is
widely spoken though Ukrainian is the only official language. Russia
has framed its invasion as an attempt to protect Russian speakers in
Ukraine from what it claims is “genocide” by “neo-Nazis”. Recommended
Rachman Review podcast20 min listen What would a Ukraine peace deal
look like? new 40 minutes ago

Podolyak said “humanitarian issues, including language issues, are
discussed only through the prism of Ukraine’s exclusive interests”.

The biggest sticking point remains Russia’s demand that Ukraine
recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two
separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region.

Ukraine has so far refused but was willing to compartmentalise the
issue, Podolyak said.

“Disputed and conflict territories [are] in a separate case. So far,
we are talking about a guaranteed withdrawal from the territories that
have been occupied since the start of the military operation on
February 24,” when Russia’s invasion began, he said.

Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, whose nation has sought to
play a role as a mediator in the conflict, echoed hopes that
negotiations could bear fruit after a meeting with Lavrov.

“I’m not going to go into the details on behalf of the two countries
but I know that there are convergences between them,” Cavusoglu said.

However, UK defence minister Ben Wallace expressed scepticism about
Russia’s commitment to diplomacy.

“There is a massive information campaign going on in this conflict,
this war, and certainly when it comes to Russia you need to judge them
on their actions and not on their numerous words.”

Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in Ankara and Henry Foy in
Brussels

A bunch of my friends shared this link about the book which apparently has a significant influence in Russia.

It's kind of similar to that thing where Simpsons predicted the future, except it's too real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

The United Kingdom, merely described as an "extraterritorial floating
base of the U.S.", should be cut off from Europe

Finland should be absorbed into Russia. Southern Finland will be
combined with the Republic of Karelia and northern Finland will be
"donated to Murmansk Oblast".[8]

The book emphasizes that Russia must spread anti-Americanism
everywhere: "the main 'scapegoat' will be precisely the U.S."

In the United States:

Russia should use its special services within the borders of the
United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance,
provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical
disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of
separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively
supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian
groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It
would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist
tendencies in American politics".[8]

That's fascinating. That book is from 1997...

I can't remember the link I was reading but there's a credible line of thought that it's all about trying to reduce the USA's influence in the rest of the world. Invading to partially show how strong Russia is and scare smaller countries in to line and partially to cause division between NATO countries, greating a Greater Russia in the process is a nice side effect. Obviously that hasn't really worked so far.

A good source on geopolitics post-WW2 is the Conflicted podcast. Former Al Qaeda member turned spy turned security analyst and a former Greek Orthodox Priest discussing stuff (mostly middle-east related). Not sure I agree with it all, but it's well though through.