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In answer to your last point, I think we've had the best of times. We’ve had high standards of living and a planet habitable for high levels of biodiversity.
I think both are declining rapidly on a global level. In 15 years there will be human migration on a scale we can’t imagine as parts of the planet are unable to sustain life. The social pressures and the loss of biodiversity will make the world a much poorer place to live. -
I can't see how the scale of migration and humanitarian support needed won't lead to a more divided society in the UK about how we respond, it will make any existing political polarisation look like a minor blip
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I can't see how the scale of migration and humanitarian support needed won't lead to a more divided society in the UK about how we respond, it will make any existing political polarisation look like a minor blip
I completely agree. We are facing the largest migration of humans in history as the climate emergency progresses and we're stuck with nationalist politics and with growing post truth-ism surround the environment.
If people are worried about immigration to the Uk despite the very valid economic case for it, imagine how they feel when the water runs out and a billion people are on the move with the singlular goal of not dying of thirst?
Whats going to happen? Lets start a good old fashioned LFGSS list of possibilities:
1) The world takes steps to slow, stall and eventually reverse human induced climate change, invests in infrastructure and education in the developing world.
2) The areas of the world most damaged by climate change will return to feudalism, with the billionaire class providing access to food and water in return for mineral rights and labour.
3) The developed world takes no responsibility for the developing world and institutes eco-facism while the nationalistic willy waving grows to a crescendo.
4) Nuclear armageddon, killing the majority of humans, leading to the great reset.
5)Any more possibilities to add?
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You could map out a case for large parts of human existence going online / virtual, with humans living in huge dormitories and never going outside - food deliveries by drones etc etc. Fairly sci-fi but then what isn't these days
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Probably somewhere between 2 and 3 with a new comic relief/ red nose day type event created where we all chuck a tenner at the problem once or twice a year to feel like we have done our bit while watching a c list celeb complete a challenge and footage of someone looking at their failed crop
The major frustration is the world could go either way, the tech, the policies and the resources are available to mitigate many of the worst impacts but very limited political appetite. The developed world hasn't paid up the 100bn it already promised and now they are all upping their defence spending while having to find ways to appease voters on inflation, I can't see many politicians keeping climate at the top of their priorities.
One ray of hope, it does seem like we might see an accelerated energy transition that we might not of before but it will be interesting if they can make it stick. Nixon's energy interventions were wide ranging and made a dent during the oil crisis but it didn't take many years for consumerism to drive overall demand back up to levels higher than they were before.
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You could map out a case for large parts of human existence going online / virtual, with humans living in huge dormitories and never going outside - food deliveries by drones etc etc. Fairly sci-fi but then what isn't these days
More likely you map out people who can afford the tech going online/ in to the metaverse to be full time distracted from the unpleasantness of what is happening in the real world
(I really enjoy using my VR headset and can definitely see a potential future where large amounts of time are spent wearing one for remote working, entertainment, interacting with remote friends and family etc.)
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our large future means that there are large opportunities too.
Problems are solvable. This is for me the most important insight that I learned from writing Our World in Data over the last decade.
Compared to the vast future ahead, the two centuries shown in this chart here are only a brief episode of human history. But even in such a short period we have made substantial progress against many large problems.
Given enough time we can end the horrors of today. Poverty is not inevitable; we can achieve a future where people are not suffering from scarcity, a world without need or want. Diseases that are incurable today might be curable in just a few generations; we already have an amazing track record in improving people’s health. And we can achieve a world in which we stop damaging the environment and achieve a future in which the world’s wildlife flourishes.
Our children and grandchildren can continue the progress we are making, and they may create art and build a society more beautiful than we can even imagine.
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I was thinking about how gloval Covid response might be a good indicator to see how the world might respond to climate change. The official death toll is about 5m but epidemiologists thing the true death toll is somewhere around 20m. We are hopefully half way through this pandemic and there is a good chance things get less severe from here but we can't take that for granted. Minimising transmission is still crucial for trying to reduce the number of mutations and reduce the chance of a really nasty variant cropping up. We should be minimising transmission, investing in healthcare and education globally and trying to reduce the number of immune compromised people in the world not receiving treatment (a common soure of mutations).
So what has happened? Most of the world has declared it over. Too hard to solve. The rich nations tried hard for a few years but then decided its too hard and accepted that the long term health implications of the virus are acceptable and that the best thing to do is nothing, and wait for it to pass.
I know that we already know for sure that the human race is bungling the early stages of climate change, but I think the global response to Covid gives us an idea of what we can expect in terms of a response when the climate shit really hits the fan.
1) Fuck the poor people, lets close the doors and keep our own safe.
2) This is costing the rich too much money, everybody needs to get back to work
3) Its hard to solve...let nature find a way! -
I know that we already know for sure that the human race is bungling the early stages of climate change,
Though I don’t think we are at the early stages!
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Though I don’t think we are at the early stages
Definitely at the early stages of the temperature change, climate disruption and impacts to people's lives. Going to get a lot worse before (if) it gets better
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Though I don’t think we are at the early stages!
Fair point although its early stages in terms of comparison to what happens next.
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check out The Real-Town Murders by Adam Roberts. Set in a near-future Reading(!), almost all interaction, employment etc. happens virtually and people have automated treadmills and exoskeletons to exercise their bodies while they are on-line.
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Very much this
But people have buried heads in the sand and kicked the problem down the road for future generations to solve.
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I think the global response to Covid gives us an idea of what we can expect in terms of a response when the climate shit really hits the fan.
1) Fuck the poor people, lets close the doors and keep our own safe.
2) This is costing the rich too much money, everybody needs to get back to work
3) Its hard to solve...let nature find a way!I think we can get jaded by what we see happening here and in the US, we have also seen
-Vaccines deliver at a speed everyone would of said impossible before
-Government willingness to unhide the magic money tree
-Public willing to go further than the Government to do the right thing
-In many countries people willing to take major hits to their civic freedoms for the greater goodBut I agree in that politically the will isn't and won't be there to deal with a threat in the future compared to one here now, we have already left it too late to turn the ship around and we will almost certainly leave it too late to slow the ship down. There were members of the Australian Government yesterday arguing that they don't have to tackle climate change as they have no obligation to future generations
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Here you go you gloomy bunch, how actions against Russia are accelerating the transition to low carbon energy sources
https://twitter.com/ntsafos/status/1505248550975938560 -
Although this makes me super gloomy and I hope it isn't part of the future - industrial farming -
https://twitter.com/MikeHudema/status/1505208514012135429
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About
The Futurology Thread
Posted by
@greentricky
The thread of the future, what do you believe the future has in store for us?
Are you optimistic about technology liberating us from work to pursue new interests paid for UBI or worried mega corps and the beneficiaries of status quo will use it to enslave us?
Do you feel helpless in the face of climate breakdown and ecological collapse or believe that such existential threats will bring out the best of humanity to lead us to a Utopian future?
Do you think wealth and power will continue to consolidate in the hands of the few or will we see new economic and political models implemented to lift those forgotten by society out of poverty and inequality to live in a fairer world for all?
For those without children, is it a world you would be happy to raise a family in? Or for those with children do you believe they will grow up living a better life than what has come before or worry they won't have the opportunities you and your forebears had?