Russian invasion of Ukraine

Sure its the most emmediate effect anyways i would think to.

I think the list is long and will continue to grow as time goes on. For the west russia is now dead as a trading partner.

Nick above has a good point as well. All the young talent that wont want to stay. Sure they can likely be forced to do so but that has it costs as well.

I think the undoing of the quite friendly view of russia and russians is a big deal long term as well. 30 years of progress just wiped out in 2 weeks. Which politician will even think about doing anything remotely pro russia when the western population hates it guts. It will have effects for a long long time. Europe making plans to be independant of russias natural recources etc etc.

What is the cost of occupying a nation for years as thats what it will take even if he wins the "war". How many russian soldiers will die, how many russian mothers will wont it to stop?

All the major companies withdrawing their factories shops and products etc.

Give the current situation a few years (god forbide) and putin himself may not be adversly affected but his population will suffer and so will his popularity.

Nato? Wont surprise me if Finland and Sweden both are nato members by the end of 2022. Germany upping their defense budget to 100 billion euro. Sweden will now also aim for 2% of gnp. Many nations are awakening to a realisation that perhaps we have been naive.

He has also managed to unify europe in a way we havent seen in a long time. With uk leaving eu and things were looking brittle its now more united than ever. It helps to have a common enemy. Sometimes i wonder if it will take allien war to unite mankind as a whole..

No it doesn’t. It’s some mildly related bollocks from the 1990s that seeks to blame Nato for Putin murdering thousands. Are you a Russian bot?

In the past few days, more and more people on reddit seemed to have become increasingly critical of President Zelensky's persistent demand for a NATO no-fly zone.

Every now and again you just have to take a step back and marvel at the world in 2022

It's not blaming nato for anything.

Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.

This is exactly what happened, it's not just Putin, it's the whole Russian bullshit of seeing themselves as victims. They see themselves as a former superpower that was cheated out of their colonies and what they see as rightfully theirs. But they are just a bunch of losers that never amounted to much and have nothing to offer for the future of the planet. If they didn't have nukes they would have been wiped of the face of the earth a long time ago.

That's why this whole unification of the russian public behind Putin with propaganda works, they can still refer to a great Russia without people breaking out laughing. No current German politician could rally people behind themselves by striving to rebuild the 3rd Reich. Russia is still poisoned by the Soviet past, just because they were allowed to be consumers of western goods for a few decades does not turn them into a modern society.

The big difference is that the younger generation of Russians has experienced the modern world.

I wouldn't be so positive about this - the younger generation of Russians grew up knowing no other leader than Putin. He's been in power for 22 years. 22 years of brainwashing.

“In my mind, there is no such period of time when Putin was not there,
when he did not exist,” says Alexander, a university teacher who lives
in St Petersburg and gained his ticket to the inauguration through
Network, a pro-Putin youth group.

“I have never really stopped to think about this country without him
as president. I’m convinced that Putin as a politician is one
thing . . . but the system he has created will always be here,” he
says. “Well, that is what I hope.”

Alexander is not alone. A generation of Russians — about 40 million
people — have been born or spent their entire education in a political
system that revolves around one man.

From: https://www.ft.com/content/4006f332-31a8-11ea-a329-0bcf87a328f2

But they are just a bunch of losers that never amounted to much and have nothing to offer for the future of the planet. If they didn't have nukes they would have been wiped of the face of the earth a long time ago.

Wtf

No current German politician could rally people behind themselves by striving to rebuild the 3rd Reich.

Isn't that kind of happening? On the fringes perhaps but it's there, just like those in the UK (ok, England) who hark back to the glorious days of Empire.

Isn't that kind of happening? On the fringes perhaps but it's there

On the fringes of the fringes, of course. There will always be some sad individuals harking back to imaginary past glories. But I see no evidence of any desire among the German people to see a return to the Third Reich except amongst a very small number of extremists. Whereas Putin's desire to see Russia return to a Cold War Stalinist way of life appears to have substantial but not universal support.

I do think that the narrative of Russia ‘losing’ or ‘stagnating’ in their Ukrainian adventure is a misguided western media interpretation. The basic fact is that they are slowly taking territory.

Comically bad military tactics, terrible civilian and Russian army casualties are irrelevant, as they always have been in Russian wars - on the basis that there won’t be any Russian public backlash.

As has been stated elsewhere, they win by mass, eventually, at terrible cost, they will win, it’s just a matter of time.

I think the only positive out of this adventure has been to show how genuinely bad the Russian military is and that if they can be held by a 3rd rate military like Ukraine, than they would loose against any single major western nation, and would get completely overrun by the combined force of NATO. The only thing keeping them in the game are nuclear weapons (RE North Korea).

The Nazi regime was a relative short episode but it still took Germany decades to overcome it, recognize the mistake it was, how deeply it was embedded into society, pay reparations and it's still an ongoing process.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vergangenheitsbew%C3%A4ltigung

Russia now has over 100 years of terror regimes of different shapes but somehow gets a free pass, the current face is Putin and everybody just thinks somebody needs to stab him and it will all be ok again.
They stole half a century of the future of Eastern Europe. "The West" pulling out of Russia is seen as punishment, Russia pulling out of Eastern Europe was liberation. That is the fundamental difference and that's what I mean by they have nothing to offer.

“The basic fact is that they are slowly taking territory.”
and how do you see them holding that territory and assimilating whats left of the population to become loyal to russia? and how long for?

Same way Russia tried to assimilate the Baltics: move millions of ethnic Russians or other non Ukrainian people.

Putin will try and erase all unique Ukrainian culture, museums, artifacts, libraries and statues will be destroyed. He already claims there is no such thing as “Ukrainian culture”, he says they are “brothers”.

A long blood soaked insurgency is coming.

It's not 1941, Putin can't throw away the lives of a hundred thousand soldiers the way Stalin did. The public and the generals won't wear it, especially as Russia isn't exactly facing an existential threat. The USSR chose a humiliating retreat from Afghanistan because they'd lost a mere 15,000 soldiers. And if Russian oil sales stop there'll be no money for new weapons. Ukraine gets new, better weapons given to it every day.

Eventually the Russian public will find out about these fatalities.

Our of curiosity why are you so sure about this?

Let's be honest kids is like buying expensive kit. You're never going to admit that it was a mistake once you've committed.

Russian army casualties are irrelevant, as they always have been in Russian wars - on the basis that there won’t be any Russian public backlash.

I think their experience in Afghanistan would disagree. However, what some commentators miss when they reference Afghanistan, is the backlash was only possible because of Glasnost. Putin is cutting off all access to non-state information. I heard someone recently make the point that once visa and mastercard go then a lot of VPN users will loose their access - although these are a tiny fraction of the population anyway.

They admitted later they had taken nearer 26,000 casualties in Afghanistan the worst year was 4000. They have already had more than 4000 casualties in Ukraine

Interesting analysis looking at how the Chinese might respond to current situation

https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224?t=5a7DuPwrw_Cnsdpze08F6g&s=19

Russia is still poisoned by the Soviet past

And the past before that again. Tsarist Russia also believed in the insubordination of Ukrainians, Estonians, Armenians, all the Siberian peoples etc. Imperialist ideals didn't start or end with Communism.

Very amused by the idea George F Kennan is a 1997-era Russian bot.

Apols if pearoast but this is worth a read
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

once visa and mastercard go then a lot of VPN users will loose their access

There are suggestions that the Internet in Russia is likely to be disconnected from the rest of the world soon so things like VPNs may not work anyway.

Thanks for sharing

There is strong irony in 'western democracy' though, given the near autocratic state of the UK and the way the conservatives are plundering tax revenues for their pals.

I also find the Indian silence unnerving.

Very good article

We can only hope this position is shared in the wider Chinese leadership!

This is worth a read https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

^ not quite a pea but it's in the twitter @Gustav linked to above