Russian invasion of Ukraine

This is all going very off topic and there are holes to pick in his arguments but someone like Steven Pinker would argue there has never been a better time to be alive and the trajectory for increases in standard of living will only continue

The west has its own oligarchs and is turning into a feudal society.

Oligarchs>semi-rich>law enforcement>peasants

Nick Hannauer makes this point (and he's stupidly rich). He says fellow billionaires need to pay attention, because it will either end up with a police state or pitchforks.

Loads of holes in my argument for sure. That's why I thought this deserves a thread.

The experiences of our parents vary. My mother and my mother in law grew up in abject poverty as did my wife. They had to flee war and persecution. My father in law had his home bulldozed in Palestine. Things turned out ok for them but not everybody can say the same. Some of my British friends live below the poverty line. Some of my international friends live without access to education or healthcare. This is why the argument that this is the best time to be alive is also flawed. This might be a good time to be alive for some but not for all.

Anyway, might start a "What the future holds" thread at some point, if nobody else does.

Can I just say, as a counterpoint to some of the above, having children and building a family is, by some considerable margin, the best thing I have ever done.

When times are tough - and we're currently processing a bereavement - the mutual love and support you can give and receive as part of a close family just can't be replicated by any other means.

Not even drugs?

Millenarianisn has been kicking around for a while, but the average global living standard is higher than it has ever been.

A counter intuitive view on nuclear weapons is that without the deterrence they create we would probably have been on world war 6 or 7 by now.

Can I just say, as a counterpoint to some of the above, having children and building a family is, by some considerable margin, the best thing I have ever done.

When times are tough - and we're currently processing a bereavement - the mutual love and support you can give and receive as part of a close family just can't be replicated by any other means.

Wasn't intending this to be a discussion on the merits of having children. It's quite clear that having a family is the most rewarding thing that many people have in their lives. I say some people because not everybody has a happy, safe and non abusive family.

Anyway....war in Ukraine.

Nato is already enforcing a no fly zone by supplying huge numbers of anti-air missiles. You can bet that the missiles are accompanied by a few 'advisors' who give training, plus special forces doing reconnaissance. And we're no doubt providing satellite photos and interception of signals. We've already entered this war.

If Nato jets were over Ukraine shooting at Russian jets, it wouldn't help much because there aren't that many Russian jets flying, and Russian artillery and missiles wouldn't be affected. But it would backfire, because Putin would gain popularity if Nato jets were seen to be killing Russian pilots. It's better if the Ukrainians are seen to be doing the killing. Eventually the Russian public will find out about these fatalities. This will turn some of them against Putin. If Kyiv can keep the Russians out indefinitely, Putin's position will weaken. Kyiv will be his Stalingrad, but in reverse.

Bizarre Russian chat show clip. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502701731746099200 No wonder army morale is in the toilet.

I thought this made quite of sense about the no fly zone:

"Zelensky's persistent demand for NATO no-fly zone is a smart and necessary negotiation tactic and political cover for NATO.

In the past few days, more and more people on reddit seemed to have become increasingly critical of President Zelensky's persistent demand for a NATO no-fly zone. What they failed to understand is that this is exactly what he should do to maximize NATO support while providing NATO with a political cover to avoid escalation with Russia.

In negotiations/politics, if you want 10, you'll have to ask for 15. If you ask for 10, you only get 5, or less. By demanding something that the NATO mostly likely can't provide (like a no-fly zone), Zelensky makes all other Ukraine demands seem even more reasonable and cheap (politically). Forcing NATO to repeatedly deny the request for a no-fly zone compels them to keep providing Ukraine with other forms of assistance to compensate: weapons, equipments, intel, sanctions, food, humanitarian assistance, etc. It's just a common and necessary tactic." from a Reddit comment.

Source Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tc2ait/comment/i0auutv/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

That was really sad and I actually felt sorry for the officer. Russia/USSR treats soldiers like expendible garbage. Not long before Putin will claim invasion was all the army’s idea.
Now he can order a withdrawal and blame everyone else for the disaster.
He’s already arrested a bunch of intelligence officers and generals.

Not even drugs?

Not even close.

Some random thoughts:

1). The Russian operational plan for the conflict at the start was predicated on the assumption that the Zelensky government would quickly fall. The political objective was to install a Ukrainian government that was a client of Moscow, with the assumption that this could be imposed on the Ukrainian people without much resistance.

2). It rapidly became apparent that this was not achievable. With galvanising leadership from Zelensky; effective military resistance; widespread support for Ukraine in terms of military and humanitarian supplies from the west; unification of NATO; and a powerful package of sanctions, a consensus emerged that Putin had miscalculated.

3). This consensus is prbably wrong. Despite not achieving his apparent maximalist goals, the war is benefitting Putin so far. His successes include:

• effectively manufacturing consent in Russia such that there is no material opposition to the war that can undermine his leadership.
  
• flushing out and eradicating opposition within his government and security services.
  
• he has demonstrated that there is a limit to how NATO will project power. His nuclear deterrent is such that NATO will not impose a no fly zone or supply jets to Ukraine.
  
• he has probably eliminated any path to NATO membership for Ukraine.
  
• he had significant leverage to achieve territorial goals in Ukraine via ceasefire and negotiation. For example, he has maximised his opportunities to get Crimea recognised; to get a land corridor to Crimea; and to get independent states of Luhansk and Donetsk that are client States.
  
• given the absence of domestic opposition and the limits of NATO power, he has the ability to continue to pursue the conflict to see how much more he can get. He also has the fall back of a calling a ceasefire whenever he needs to (e.g. if his military operational challenges become overwhelming; or if sanctions impact the Russian economy in a way that is unsustainable).
  
  

Anyone materially disagree with all or parts of this analysis?

a consensus emerged that Putin had miscalculated.

Just to be nit picky, I have seen an opinion emerging that potentially he didn't miscalculate, his calculation was correct but it was just built on incorrect assumptions being fed to him by incompetent yes men who didn't think their lies mattered as they had miscalculated by thinking he would never invade so he didn't need accurate data

It is a good point and probably right.

There was a period last week when I thought Putin was irrational, and my fear of nuclear conflict went up as a result. I'm back in the camp of thinking he is rational now, within the parameters of what is logical for him.

One example of something that has worked well for him. I think Ukraine would have those Mig-29s right now if he hadn't been on TV and announced a special regime of duty (or whatever he called it) for his nuclear deterrent.

I dont think Putin sees this as a win tbh.
You have pointed out some facts (or believes) that could potentially be a possitive for him. But you have not provided a similar list of the facts (or believes) that could be a negative for him.

I think the negatives far outweight the possitives thus far tbh.

Interesting point of view. What do you think is the list of negatives? The long term impact of sanctions would be top in my mind.

The brain drain is a huge negative. This is the biggest miscalculation he has made. He'll probably be forced to contain it by making exit visas difficult, effectively turning Russia into a prison. This would make him a dead man walking. His own people would definitely get rid of him.

An excellent book on this topic (also read his KLF one if you haven't)

https://www.weidenfeldandnicolson.co.uk/titles/john-higgs/the-future-starts-here/9781474609418/

Kind of have to go all out once a NATO member is attacked or it doesn't stand for anything I'd have thought.

Given how incompetent just about every body of power has proven to be over the last two years, NATO being exposed as effectively useless when the chips are down would not surprise me in the least personally.

Stalin seemed to manage it OK for several decades.

making exit visas difficult, effectively turning Russia into a prison. This would make him a dead man walking. His own people would definitely get rid of him.

That FT piece made the example that he can now remodel the country to a China model with much stricter controls on many aspects of life. No doubt the wealthiest will still be able to buy visa's and everyone else wouldn't be able to afford to go anywhere else anyway after the crushing sanctions

The big difference is that the younger generation of Russians has experienced the modern world. They've also seen how easy it was to get rid of various dictators and autocrats, e.g. the ones in Romania, East Germany and Libya.

Looks interesting, thanks.
I am generally quite gloomy about the future.

Yes, this part was funny:

They are becoming impressed with the Chinese model: a tremendously dynamic economy, a disciplined society

lol, good luck with that in Russia.