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It is a good point and probably right.
There was a period last week when I thought Putin was irrational, and my fear of nuclear conflict went up as a result. I'm back in the camp of thinking he is rational now, within the parameters of what is logical for him.
One example of something that has worked well for him. I think Ukraine would have those Mig-29s right now if he hadn't been on TV and announced a special regime of duty (or whatever he called it) for his nuclear deterrent.
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Just to be nit picky, I have seen an opinion emerging that potentially he didn't miscalculate, his calculation was correct but it was just built on incorrect assumptions being fed to him by incompetent yes men who didn't think their lies mattered as they had miscalculated by thinking he would never invade so he didn't need accurate data