Russian invasion of Ukraine

Some random thoughts:

1). The Russian operational plan for the conflict at the start was predicated on the assumption that the Zelensky government would quickly fall. The political objective was to install a Ukrainian government that was a client of Moscow, with the assumption that this could be imposed on the Ukrainian people without much resistance.

2). It rapidly became apparent that this was not achievable. With galvanising leadership from Zelensky; effective military resistance; widespread support for Ukraine in terms of military and humanitarian supplies from the west; unification of NATO; and a powerful package of sanctions, a consensus emerged that Putin had miscalculated.

3). This consensus is prbably wrong. Despite not achieving his apparent maximalist goals, the war is benefitting Putin so far. His successes include:

• effectively manufacturing consent in Russia such that there is no material opposition to the war that can undermine his leadership.
  
• flushing out and eradicating opposition within his government and security services.
  
• he has demonstrated that there is a limit to how NATO will project power. His nuclear deterrent is such that NATO will not impose a no fly zone or supply jets to Ukraine.
  
• he has probably eliminated any path to NATO membership for Ukraine.
  
• he had significant leverage to achieve territorial goals in Ukraine via ceasefire and negotiation. For example, he has maximised his opportunities to get Crimea recognised; to get a land corridor to Crimea; and to get independent states of Luhansk and Donetsk that are client States.
  
• given the absence of domestic opposition and the limits of NATO power, he has the ability to continue to pursue the conflict to see how much more he can get. He also has the fall back of a calling a ceasefire whenever he needs to (e.g. if his military operational challenges become overwhelming; or if sanctions impact the Russian economy in a way that is unsustainable).
  
  

Anyone materially disagree with all or parts of this analysis?