Russian invasion of Ukraine

Thanks also

Devils Advocate. NOT MY OPINION. For information.

https://www.lotuseaters.com/video-the-destabilisation-of-ukraine-04-03-22

A friend shared this. Interesting piece.

https://freedomnews.org.uk/2022/03/04/fuck-leftist-westplaining/?fbclid=IwAR2UaEXclhsaiRX1lVElevuvT6zA6r23T_X8Ol02Lv4Pc0QJRuoj75LUUCc

I also watched earlier also and found it moving. I hope they were not coerced or under duress (i believe they weren't) because what they said was powerful.

in the FT, it's paywalled

Copy an FT article URL, search for the URL in Google, hit the first link.

It is far from clear that Russia’s economy can withstand sanctions longer than Ukraine can withstand the barrage to which Russia is subjecting it. Russia is increasing the intensity of its bombardment to try to make Ukrainian capitulation a foregone conclusion. Ukraine is asking for western support so that it can continue to resist.

Many Ukrainians are arguing that, if they stop fighting, there’s no more Ukraine. They can’t afford to ‘find out what Putin really wants’.

That article about ‘Westsplaining’ has it exactly right.

got bored after 10 minutes but in those 10 minutes there was absolutely nothing new. just re-hashing a load of stuff loosely associated with the "Washington Consensus".

You can disagree with those interventions but it in no way justifies artillery attacks on cities.

Edit: having done some quick / haphazard fact checking, I should allow that the complaints in the lotus eaters video are about neo-liberalism more broadly than the original intent of the Washington Consensus.

Good article

If you look up some of the pro-putin instagram hashtags like #своихнебросаем you can see that people are starting to form the letter Z in support of the war in Ukraine. For some reason this letter is becoming a symbol. CREEPY AF

Think it’s what the Russians painted on their vehicles last minute to distinguish themselves

Probably “punch a Nazi” adjacent but I saw the phrase “Firemen don’t negotiate with fire” and I dunno, I do think we have a fire on our hands.

See also Sarah Connor/ T-800

For now, all the public data suggests Putin enjoys popular support for the war – in which the major cities of Kharkiv, Kyiv and Mariupol have been shelled.

Employees of several Russian pollsters have said that they are concerned that the robust numbers in support of the war could embolden the Kremlin and prolong the conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russia-appears-to-have-no-way-out-as-putin-goes-all-in-ukraine

This is the guy:

https://www.linkedin.com/mwlite/in/john-wheatley-35464882

A credible authority on Ukrainian history?

I had to laugh at the start when he smugly said that we had probably only heard of Ukraine this week, but actually we should know that this all dates back eight years. Lol. I guess he was still in short trousers at prep school when the Orange revolution happened.

Also lolled when he stared dead eye into the camera and called Yanukovych the democratically elected president of Ukraine.

Just worthless propaganda. Sadly the poor rube probably isn't even on the Kremlin payroll. Just deluded himself that relative competence in once field qualifies him to comment in another.

Ps - I know you didn't post because you agreed with it. Just sharing what I thought of it.

That, for the Ukranian people, is the trap they could fall into. Essentially that involes the West using them as pawns to be sacrificed to extract concessions from the Russians.

It's also possible that they have the ability to think for themselves, don't want to occupied by Russia, and would rather fight than surrender. If the people of Ukraine ask for assistance it would be patronising in the extreme to tell them that this isn't really want they want.

End the fighting and get the Russians out

Who do you think is not going to agree to that? I'll give you a clue. It's not the Ukrainians, and it's not the West. The answer begins with an 'R'. And there are already negotiations.

I was thinking about this while I walked the dog. Putin doesn't give a shit about the narrative outside Russia - the recent media clampdown has been about maintaining his own reality within. Obviously, this is unsustainable compared to what was possible back when the Soviet Union was still about. The fact polls presently back the 'special military operation' or whatever he's calling it, might encourage him to quickly claim a victory in 'de-militarizing / de-nazifying' or whatever nonsense he wants to make up and withdraw before his ability to maintain that narrative falls apart further.

Frankly, if that eventually moves towards a de-escalation of sanctions by the west, you could imagine him viewing it as a win, or at least a draw that he survives to probe again in the future.

We need to get to negotiations

Negotiations started days ago and are ongoing.

But the only way to end the war quickly is to give Putin a way out that allows him to save face.

You don't think the Ukrainians involved in the negotiations also have that in mind?

I'd rather that was permitted than war continued with people killed and lives ruined.

And does it matter what the people of Ukraine want?

If you have a dodgy ticker, don't watch. It's stressful.

https://news.sky.com/story/sky-news-teams-harrowing-account-of-their-violent-ambush-in-ukraine-this-week-12557585

Holy shit.

Hypothetically speaking. What would happen if Ukraine, Sweden, Georgia and Finland were to formally apply for NATO membership today?

Nice solidarity

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/04/dockers-on-merseyside-refuse-to-unload-russian-oil-stanlow-kent-netherlands-ukraine

Ukraine is publishing lists of Russian aircrew involved in attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure. Likewise, they've also published the name of Belorussian pilots who they allege took part in the air attacks.

The principle is roughly the same as joining the EU. You have to express interest, go through period of being pre-assessed, then if you are close to meeting the requirements a vote is held to formally invite you, then you are fully assessed, and then finally members vote to confirm that they want you to join. A process that if fast tracked could be finished in a few months but would normally take a few years.

You do not need to negotiate. You are not a party to the conflict. It is like You are a colonialist making decisions for Ukraina.

We, that is Finland, lost Karelia and Peitsamo plus We Almost lost our independence due to the Molotov-ribbentrop treaty. Let Ukrainian people decide themselves Where they stand.

Putin is loosing the war on the battle front and slowly in the minds of the people. Now is not the time to give him Any hope. If You want to help push for a war crime tribunal and further economic sanktions.

Putin did say in his rather odd discussion with his spy chief that he didn't see taking the autonomous regions as being on the table.

We shouldn't take anything Putin says seriously. He's a pathological liar.

what Russia actually does want

They stated what they want - the denazification of Ukraine. :)

The Ukrainian people had already decided (again) where they stand 9 years ago, when they turfed out their corrupt president, and were facing a political future not too dissimilar to Belarus. So the backlash from the clip of a British politician vaguely talking about complex national identifies , got the reaction it had. As if that's why people are fighting, as opposed to not wanting to go back to being a part of a Russian Federation, where they have no say in the running of their country and where the risk of disappearing was fairly high. Well fuck. Better roll back the Reform act as there are complex land ownership issue in the UK.