Russian invasion of Ukraine

I agree. Also, the sanctions and economic warfare will do significant damage to our economies.

I think the truly cynical in government probably accepted the Russian invasion and hoped Putin would quickly and mostly bloodlessly remove the Zelensky government, so we wouldn't actually have to bother with sanctions and they could keep taking donations off their oligarch mates.

thanks for posting that dude. very interesting

Western governments would be quite happy for Russia to be stuck in an Afghanistan type occupation, where they can't get out without losing everything, so they have to stay at massive human and financial cost, until putin gets deposed or however else it ends.

Hmmmm. Not sure about this.

Shocking as I find it that she was suggesting the partition of Ukraine

I watched the video and didn't interpret anything she said as suggesting the partitioning of Ukraine. Weird how one video can be interpreted so differently by different people. Not a dig at you at all. Perhaps it helps that I don't know much about Diane Abbott's views on anything and have only really been aware of the weirder more racist and misgynistic stuff that has been levelled her way.

Wouldn’t Western governments prefer Russia to be a source of raw materials and a market for consumer goods.

I have colleagues in Ukraine. They’re not at all keen on letting Putin steamroll them and are grateful for the west’s support. Granted it’s a small handful of people and not representative. But I think it’s presumptuous for westerners to say they should just concede defeat if they don’t want to.

Wouldn’t Western governments prefer Russia to be a source of raw materials and a market for consumer goods.

As in, a regular country participating in the world economy? Yes, very much so.

I am a member of Stop the War and have been since Iraq so I certainly don't deplore their stance - I fully support it. I'd be surprised if anyone who actually reads what they say and isn't a nutter deplores it.

I want to see an end to the conflict asap. Russia has got Crimea. The people who live there seem, as far as we can tell, to be happy with that. Putin did say in his rather odd discussion with his spy chief that he didn't see taking the autonomous regions as being on the table.

We need to get to negotiations and see what Russia actually does want, and find an acceptable solution. Nobody knows what it would be yet. But the only way to end the war quickly is to give Putin a way out that allows him to save face. I'd rather that was permitted than war continued with people killed and lives ruined.

The evidence is that, over the last few years, the US in particular has talked up Russia as the big enemy and military threat, blamed (without much evidence) for interfering in the 2016 election and the Brexit referendum.

Putin is not going to withdraw to 2014. He is keeping Crimea and he needs something else - by which I don't mean territory - to make an orderly withdrawal. If he doesn't get something, he won't leave.

Fwiw I thought she was trying to draw on peaceful separation of states as an example that "peaceful solution to complicated conflict of identities" is possible in theory, rather than advocating for carving up Ukraine to stop this particular war.

Also bear in mind that youtube video is 3 weeks old.

I agree that the US has been inching towards a harder line on Russia since 2016 but the evidence that they interfered in the 2016 election is voluminous, read the Mueller Report, or the GOP led, bi-partisan Senate Intelligence committee report from 2020.

Implying that 'we' the west need to get to negotiations with Russia and find an acceptable solution denies Ukraine's agency, which is what Putin has wanted all along.

What worth would the negotiations have?

End the fighting and get the Russians out

Implying that 'we' the west need to get to negotiations with Russia and find an acceptable solution denies Ukraine's agency

I agree with this in theory, however the situation here is that Ukraine does not have enough weight to change Russia / Putin's policy. Putin will just continue to obliterate their country and people.

It's also not yet clear whether "the west's" economic sanctions have sufficient weight to bring Putin / the Kremlin to the negotiating table either. The hope is that they will eventually, however "eventually" is already too late for many people who have lost their lives, and horrendously will also be too late for many more who have yet to do so.

I don't have any answer as to what could bring about a peaceful outcome any more quickly and I don't discount anyone who is trying to bring up possible (reasonable) answers.

Implying that 'we' the west need to get to negotiations with Russia and find an acceptable solution denies Ukraine's agency, which is what Putin has wanted all along.

It's not us that needs to negotiate, it's Ukraine and Russia.
I guess Ukraine might want other parties involved though - but their call.

We need to get to negotiations and see what Russia actually does want, and find an acceptable solution. Nobody knows what it would be yet. But the only way to end the war quickly is to give Putin a way out that allows him to save face. I'd rather that was permitted than war continued with people killed and lives ruined.

I’m sorry to say but that has a whiff of appeasement about it

I agree that the US has been inching towards a harder line on Russia since 2016 but the evidence that they interfered in the 2016 election is voluminous, read the Mueller Report, or the GOP led, bi-partisan Senate Intelligence committee report from 2020.

I should rephrase - I'm sure Russia has tried to interfere in elections as that's what countries do and there is evidence of lots of stuff happening. What I meant was I'm not sure that there's evidence that it made a decisive difference, that things wouldn't have happened anyway. I've not read all the US evidence and I never will but, with Brexit, I can see enough reasons why it happened from 15+ years of UK policy own goals and errors without needing to believe the Russians were required to make it happen.

Until?

I’m sorry to say but you hat has a whiff of appeasement about it

I don't think that is a helpful label to attach. The conflict won't end without a negotiation and that is how negotiation works. The fact is that countries with big armies tend to get what they want and, however much we might wish it wasn't the way, there's not a lot we can do about it.

One of the most thoughtful pieces I have read recently om the subject of "why is this happening?" and "what does this mean" is the weekend essay in the FT by Francis Fukuyama. I don't agree with all of it, but it is balanced, intelligent and humane.

It has helped me feel less utterly bleak about this situation, although it's not in itself a particularly positive article. It's just refreshing to read a narrative that kind of makes sense.

Being in the FT, it's paywalled. However if anyone would like to read it, PM me your email and i'll send you a "gift" link, up to a limit of 20 people as that's the maximum number of articles my subscription allows me to "gift" in a month . It's quite long. Here's the opening:

The horrific Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24 has been seen as a critical turning point in world history. Many have said that it definitively marks the end of the post-cold war era, a rollback of the “Europe whole and free” that we thought emerged after 1991, or indeed, the end of The End of History.

(without much evidence) for interfering in the 2016 election

Here's a chart showing the number of confirmed contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian assets over a 7 month period. There were also confirmed cyber attacks originating from Russia.

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the situation here is that Ukraine do not have enough weight to change Russia / Putin's policy. Putin will just continue to obliterate their country and people.

It's also not yet clear whether "the west's" economic sanctions have sufficient weight to bring Putin / the Kremlin to the negotiating table either. The hope is that they will eventually, however "eventually" is already too late for many people who have lost their lives, and horrendously will also be too late for many more who have yet to do so.

Agreed, although I don't think either are clear. I suspect that Ukraine have in a sense already changed Putin's policy by being dramatically more effective in resisting than anyone in his administration had imagined. I think it was Fiona Hill that described Putin's foreign policy along the lines of the Lenin quote: 'you probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push, if you find steel, withdraw.'

Hopefully that Ukrainian resistance along with a far more co-ordinated and severe program of global sanctions will make him withdraw quickly. Ukraine and Russia are already negotiating but it's really in Putin's hands at the moment.

I hesitated to use it because I realise it is an unpleasant thing to say but negotiations have to be carried out in good faith.

Agreed, although I don't think either are clear.

that's fair, although so far bi-lateral negotiations have achieved a "tentative agreement" for a humanitarian corridor from certain cities so that Ukrainians can flee the country without getting killed on the way out. Which illustrates your second point, that currently Putin is writing the agenda.

On the Fiona Hill thing; evidence that we have so far seems to suggest that resistance is leading to escalation. Happy to be corrected on that one, it's just how it appears from what I'm seeing.

On the Fiona Hill thing; evidence that we have so far seems to suggest that resistance is leading to escalation. Happy to be corrected on that one, it's just how it appears from what I'm seeing.

Hey I've no idea really but I think this is what you'd expect - Ukraine chose to resist, short term escalation is inevitable, but the price for Putin's goal has ratcheted up exponentially. That's the steel.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/04/sainsburys-renames-chicken-kievs-kyivrussian-made-vodka-uk-supermarket-soviet-spelling-ukraine

The war will be over in no time