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I think what you're not factoring in is the effect on Russian public opinion of Putin failing to secure a fast victory and of thousands of young Russian men being returned ro Russia in boxes. Nobody celebrates the loss of life on either side, but Putin has seemed immovable so far because he has been seen to create stability rather than prosperity. If his judgement is shown not to be sound and it costs Russian lives (during the invasion and the occupation) then he may be ousted.
ffm
Apologies for the ramble and no doubt half baked thoughts below - I am no expert on geopolitics, but...
Is there not something morally ambiguous, or even dishonest about the west's posture in this war in Ukraine.
Cutting through the wishful thinking and propaganda, there doesn't seem to be any serious credence given to the idea that Ukraine will secure a military victory - rather, the grim reality that Russia will simply escalate the violence to such an extent as is required to win is predicted and expected across the board.
If that is our expectation, then why are we arming the Ukrainians and in turn provoking the Russian escalation, when all we believe it can lead to is the destruction of Ukrainians cities and the blood loss of it's military and civilian populations? To say nothing of the refugee misery.
The west is resolved not to enter the conflict militarily and secure a victory for Ukraine, so why do we not accept what we believe to be inevitable and not prolong and intensify the suffering of Ukrainians?
There seems an obvious, and terrible cynical answer...because it suits the West for Ukraine to suffer - the more grotesque and public the better. The more the Ukrainians are obliterated, the more the West can pursue a bloodless (western) and morally certain campaign against Putin. The Ukrainian's blood is fueling our PR / Russia's negative PR - it justifies our sanctions and weakens Russia internally.
Apart from the violation of the principal of national sovereignty, does the West really care about the fate of Ukraine? We clap for an independent Ukraine, but having Russia bogged down in a ghastly, messy war of occupation is perhaps of far more practical use to us, isn't it?
Did the west arm and train the Mujahideen in Afghanistan because we gave a shit about that country's fate?
I don't doubt that there is very much genuine outrage and sympathy - and that many if not most are genuinely conflicted by the motivation of wanting to do all they can without risking the terrible fate of nuclear war. But surely there must be those who know how this ends - and know that there is much to be gained if it doesn't end too quickly, or too cleanly. And the cynicism of those people, posturing with Ukraine flags and chanting solidarity is sickening.