Russian invasion of Ukraine

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deleted
The hypothesis that Russia will now change gears and 'win' in Ukraine is based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence. There seem to be at least three major things they have got wrong so far:
- The political assumption that the Ukrainian people would welcome Russian intervention.
- The military assumption that follow the above - i.e. that they wouldn't encounter any real resistance.
- The economic assumption that they could partially stabilise the currency and economy from any shocks using foreign currency reserves, which they must have ruled out being frozen.
Putin must be doubting his advisors at this stage (and vice versa), which would lead pretty quickly to dysfunction in government. Wouldn't that sort of reality check make you worry that the levers you are pulling are not connected to anything?

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hvsds in reply to @deleted

The hypothesis that Russia will now change gears and 'win' in Ukraine is based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence.

For me, sadly, I think they can ‘win’, whatever that means, as social media has a tendency to overstate Russia’s loses and understate it’s capabilities with respect to things like it’s air force which hasn’t really been involved in a major way yet (due to trying the ‘softly-softly’ approach in the sense that it’s not been shock and awe bomb into submission).

That, and things like the 40 mile long convoy headed towards Kyiv at the moment.

edit: hope i’m very very wrong

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