Russian invasion of Ukraine

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deleted
The hypothesis that Russia will now change gears and 'win' in Ukraine is based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence. There seem to be at least three major things they have got wrong so far:
- The political assumption that the Ukrainian people would welcome Russian intervention.
- The military assumption that follow the above - i.e. that they wouldn't encounter any real resistance.
- The economic assumption that they could partially stabilise the currency and economy from any shocks using foreign currency reserves, which they must have ruled out being frozen.
Putin must be doubting his advisors at this stage (and vice versa), which would lead pretty quickly to dysfunction in government. Wouldn't that sort of reality check make you worry that the levers you are pulling are not connected to anything?

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greentricky in reply to @deleted

based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence.

This article address that they did that is Syria and Chechnya which both started badly

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military.html

Also social media would have you believing only Russia is having supply line problems but suggests that might change quickly

While Russian forces have had supply and logistical problems — in some cases stranding vehicles without fuel in the early days of the invasion — those of the Ukrainians are likely more severe. The Ukrainian Army will start to run out of ammunition in a week, the experts suggest, and out of Stinger missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles before then.

Countries belonging to NATO and the European Union are sending ammunition and Stinger and Javelin missiles into western Ukraine from Poland, a NATO member, through a still-open border. The European Union is even, for the first time, promising to reimburse member states up to 450 million euros for the purchase and supply of weapons and equipment like flak jackets and helmets to Ukraine.

But if the Russians cut off the cities, Mr. Watling said, it will be difficult to get those supplies to Ukrainian defenders. Russian helicopters are beginning to run interdiction flights near the Polish border, and more troops are likely to move down from Belarus to cut off supply routes from Poland, he said, especially if, as it seems likely, Belarusian troops enter the war.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

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