Russian invasion of Ukraine

Thankfully hidden behind a paywall. If only the Murdoch press could do us all a favour and hide itself behind several miles of solid granite.

I don't see this as Pro Putin.It is an average read about the man, and the failures, and the big concern that there is no obvious path to de-escalation.

President Putin’s announcement that he had ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on high alert sent a frisson of alarm throughout Europe. That was his intention. Many in the West see this as a sign of frustration in Moscow that the conquest of Ukraine is not going to plan, that western reaction is more devastating and comprehensive than the Kremlin had foreseen and that Mr Putin is flailing round to undermine western solidarity and Nato unity. Even so, Nato was right to take this escalation seriously. The last time the world feared it was on the brink of nuclear war was in 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis. Things have not reached that stage. But this is a very dangerous moment.

Mr Putin is not bluffing. For some years his world view has become more and more paranoid. He believes that Russia is surrounded, threatened by an aggressive, expansionist Nato and needs to act to protect its borders, influence and global standing. His threat is not to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine: they would serve no purpose, and the Russians are ready, if necessary, to bring in heavy armour and bombers to flatten Kyiv in the way that they destroyed Grozny to win the war in Chechnya. He is talking about strategic weapons, aimed at western capitals and able, in a single strike, to cause massive destruction. The United States is now intensively monitoring Russian military movements to assess the level of threat. It is looking to see whether strategic bombers are being taken out of their hangars and armed, whether Russian nuclear-armed submarines are leaving their bases and whether there is unusual activity around the silos where ground-based missiles are ready for launch.

The worry is that the checks and balances in place in America to prevent an accidental or irrational use of nuclear weapons do not exist in Russia. Mr Putin has more personal control over Russia’s nuclear arsenal and fewer constraints, political or military, on the use of its most deadly weapons. His announcement that these weapons have been put on alert need not be followed by many more steps before they can be fired.

This will worry his countrymen as much as the West. In the past few days Russians have been battered and bewildered by the panoply of restrictions and sanctions invoked by the West. The rouble has suffered a disastrous collapse. Russians are queuing for hours to get their money out of the banks. They will not be able to travel abroad on holiday as most neighbouring countries have closed their airspace. Their football teams can no longer compete in global competitions. Their ships cannot dock in western ports, containers from big companies such as Maersk will not bring imports to Russian markets and Russian businessmen can no longer do trade overseas.

How much these concerns will influence Mr Putin or his small entourage is hard to assess. Already Russian media are blaming the West for the catastrophe that will befall the country. Mr Putin’s accusation that Nato is intervening in Ukraine is reinforced by foolish talk by Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, encouraging British volunteers to take up arms and head for the war zone. This is not Spain in 1936 and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, was quick to quash such a provocation.

At issue now is how the crisis can be de-escalated. Washington wisely has not responded by raising its defcon (defence ready condition). That response would only strengthen the hawks in Moscow. It may be too late for face-saving compromises but President Zelensky is right to try, once again, direct negotiations with Russia. He will probably meet a demand for immediate capitulation, and the talks will come to nothing. Few outsiders can influence Mr Putin, except perhaps China. Beijing’s call for restraint might work. Little else is now on offer to halt the bloodshed.

On re-read there is nothing enlightening- it is an average article at best.