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Really? It reads exactly like the musings of someone sat in his pants in his mum's basement.
That being said, the conclusions aren't too different from Michael Kofman:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167
deleted
I agree with that guy. And you can add the EU agriculture sector (who get a load of wheat and other food stuff from Ukraine, Russia) to the EU energy sector. Europe is gonna be fucked with inflation, and Putin will control Ukraine.