Russian invasion of Ukraine

60 tweet thread arguing just the opposite,

I agree with that guy. And you can add the EU agriculture sector (who get a load of wheat and other food stuff from Ukraine, Russia) to the EU energy sector. Europe is gonna be fucked with inflation, and Putin will control Ukraine.

Putin will control Ukraine

I think it's realistic to think that Russia will occupy Ukraine at some point. The question is for how long. Occupations are notoriously hard and Ukrainians have shown themselves to be remarkably brave and united in resisting so far. If there is an occupation then the body-bags will trickle back steadily to Russia and at some point I think the Russian people will have had enough.

Yeh think I read that Russia is the worlds largest producer of fertilizer which you imagine would be increased demand if attempting to make up for the potential loss of the breadbasket of Europe

Ukraine now hitting fuel trains in Russia with drone strikes. Must be fun to have probably the entire planets intelligence services feeding target info.

Looks like Zelenksy has now had to make the decision to move more of the administration to Lviv and more embassies now doing the same which looks like a bleak future for Kyiv is expected :(

quality of training and equipment...

This point was made sky news last night, apparently only a fraction of the rockets the Russians have tried to launch have launched correctly with a large numbers failing.

Found the thread that talks about how bad the Ukraine Army was in 2014 and how it has reformed
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

(This one concludes Russia can't win)

One interesting thing I took away from it was that Shoygu who was seen looking uncomfortable at the suggestion of nuclear readiness is the only minister to serve since 1991 under all presidents but as he is Tuvan (not ethnic Russian) he is never seen as threat to becoming President so just gets to scheme away in the background and can trusted to be in control of the army

Interesting thread looking at accidental post that looked at how Russia saw events after their expected victory

https://twitter.com/Tom_deWaal/status/1498310064117059585?t=MPktjClPwOwUBiQp2DzXEA&s=09&utm_source=pocket_mylist

Nice little 'TIL' on Tuvan culture. I like on the 'notable people' list on wiki it's basically:
shaman, shaman, throat singer, shaman, throat singer, minister of defence, throat singer

Fucking hell, that’s insane.

Really? It reads exactly like the musings of someone sat in his pants in his mum's basement.

That being said, the conclusions aren't too different from Michael Kofman:

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167

If you like Tuva, it's worth checking out Kalmykia, notable for being the only Buddhist region in Europe

Pointless to send airplanes that need months of training. Ukrainian pilots need equipment they are familiar with.

Anyone fancy vacation in exotic destination like Murmansk or Magadan?

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Also worth checking our Tuvan throat-singing - these guys are one of my favourites:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2ovoRyv4kw

I was referring to the possibility of Poland sending its Mig29s and replacing them with F16s a type it already operates and are plentiful , Ukraine operates Mig29s

I am more a The Hu man myself although they are Mongolian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc

The hypothesis that Russia will now change gears and 'win' in Ukraine is based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence. There seem to be at least three major things they have got wrong so far:

• The political assumption that the Ukrainian people would welcome Russian intervention.
  
• The military assumption that follow the above - i.e. that they wouldn't encounter any real resistance.
  
• The economic assumption that they could partially stabilise the currency and economy from any shocks using foreign currency reserves, which they must have ruled out being frozen.
  
  

Putin must be doubting his advisors at this stage (and vice versa), which would lead pretty quickly to dysfunction in government. Wouldn't that sort of reality check make you worry that the levers you are pulling are not connected to anything?

How odd - my son just found a 10 kopek coin from the USSR!

Let's hope Putin's Russia doesn't have a version of The King's Shilling.

vile pro-putin content
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-the-risk-of-atomic-warfare-putins-nuclear-threat-m8xppwq88

Thankfully hidden behind a paywall. If only the Murdoch press could do us all a favour and hide itself behind several miles of solid granite.

based on the assumption that they can move from incompetence to competence.

This article address that they did that is Syria and Chechnya which both started badly

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-military.html

Also social media would have you believing only Russia is having supply line problems but suggests that might change quickly

While Russian forces have had supply and logistical problems — in some cases stranding vehicles without fuel in the early days of the invasion — those of the Ukrainians are likely more severe. The Ukrainian Army will start to run out of ammunition in a week, the experts suggest, and out of Stinger missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles before then.

Countries belonging to NATO and the European Union are sending ammunition and Stinger and Javelin missiles into western Ukraine from Poland, a NATO member, through a still-open border. The European Union is even, for the first time, promising to reimburse member states up to 450 million euros for the purchase and supply of weapons and equipment like flak jackets and helmets to Ukraine.

But if the Russians cut off the cities, Mr. Watling said, it will be difficult to get those supplies to Ukrainian defenders. Russian helicopters are beginning to run interdiction flights near the Polish border, and more troops are likely to move down from Belarus to cut off supply routes from Poland, he said, especially if, as it seems likely, Belarusian troops enter the war.

I don't see this as Pro Putin.It is an average read about the man, and the failures, and the big concern that there is no obvious path to de-escalation.

President Putin’s announcement that he had ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on high alert sent a frisson of alarm throughout Europe. That was his intention. Many in the West see this as a sign of frustration in Moscow that the conquest of Ukraine is not going to plan, that western reaction is more devastating and comprehensive than the Kremlin had foreseen and that Mr Putin is flailing round to undermine western solidarity and Nato unity. Even so, Nato was right to take this escalation seriously. The last time the world feared it was on the brink of nuclear war was in 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis. Things have not reached that stage. But this is a very dangerous moment.

Mr Putin is not bluffing. For some years his world view has become more and more paranoid. He believes that Russia is surrounded, threatened by an aggressive, expansionist Nato and needs to act to protect its borders, influence and global standing. His threat is not to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine: they would serve no purpose, and the Russians are ready, if necessary, to bring in heavy armour and bombers to flatten Kyiv in the way that they destroyed Grozny to win the war in Chechnya. He is talking about strategic weapons, aimed at western capitals and able, in a single strike, to cause massive destruction. The United States is now intensively monitoring Russian military movements to assess the level of threat. It is looking to see whether strategic bombers are being taken out of their hangars and armed, whether Russian nuclear-armed submarines are leaving their bases and whether there is unusual activity around the silos where ground-based missiles are ready for launch.

The worry is that the checks and balances in place in America to prevent an accidental or irrational use of nuclear weapons do not exist in Russia. Mr Putin has more personal control over Russia’s nuclear arsenal and fewer constraints, political or military, on the use of its most deadly weapons. His announcement that these weapons have been put on alert need not be followed by many more steps before they can be fired.

This will worry his countrymen as much as the West. In the past few days Russians have been battered and bewildered by the panoply of restrictions and sanctions invoked by the West. The rouble has suffered a disastrous collapse. Russians are queuing for hours to get their money out of the banks. They will not be able to travel abroad on holiday as most neighbouring countries have closed their airspace. Their football teams can no longer compete in global competitions. Their ships cannot dock in western ports, containers from big companies such as Maersk will not bring imports to Russian markets and Russian businessmen can no longer do trade overseas.

How much these concerns will influence Mr Putin or his small entourage is hard to assess. Already Russian media are blaming the West for the catastrophe that will befall the country. Mr Putin’s accusation that Nato is intervening in Ukraine is reinforced by foolish talk by Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, encouraging British volunteers to take up arms and head for the war zone. This is not Spain in 1936 and Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, was quick to quash such a provocation.

At issue now is how the crisis can be de-escalated. Washington wisely has not responded by raising its defcon (defence ready condition). That response would only strengthen the hawks in Moscow. It may be too late for face-saving compromises but President Zelensky is right to try, once again, direct negotiations with Russia. He will probably meet a demand for immediate capitulation, and the talks will come to nothing. Few outsiders can influence Mr Putin, except perhaps China. Beijing’s call for restraint might work. Little else is now on offer to halt the bloodshed.

On re-read there is nothing enlightening- it is an average article at best.

Events early this morning dictate just how much Russia is going to pour into this war. That is not the move of a de-escalation, but a ramp up, with the subtext being- We(Putin) will do anything to "win" this war.

The conflation of Putin the man, Putin the myth and Putin the Russia (ie Putin == Russia) is the most pro-Putin element of the current media cycle. However, this is Putin's war, not Russia's and the outcome is devastation to Ukraine, Ukrainians, and to Russian people in general.

There was talk up-thread of seizure of UK- owned property of oligarchs. The question from that is realistically- is that even tantamount to more than a mild fine. Even the 20m£ + houses represent a small portion of their held capital. It does not go far enough. Revocation of all golden visas, would be a good first step.