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60 tweet thread arguing just the opposite,
I agree with that guy. And you can add the EU agriculture sector (who get a load of wheat and other food stuff from Ukraine, Russia) to the EU energy sector. Europe is gonna be fucked with inflation, and Putin will control Ukraine.
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Putin will control Ukraine
I think it's realistic to think that Russia will occupy Ukraine at some point. The question is for how long. Occupations are notoriously hard and Ukrainians have shown themselves to be remarkably brave and united in resisting so far. If there is an occupation then the body-bags will trickle back steadily to Russia and at some point I think the Russian people will have had enough.
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Yeh think I read that Russia is the worlds largest producer of fertilizer which you imagine would be increased demand if attempting to make up for the potential loss of the breadbasket of Europe
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Really? It reads exactly like the musings of someone sat in his pants in his mum's basement.
That being said, the conclusions aren't too different from Michael Kofman:
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167
ffm
greentricky
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60 tweet thread arguing just the opposite, that he can still probably take the East of the Dnieper for himself and the force the West of it in to a demilitarized buffer zone and survive the sanctions
https://twitter.com/defencewithac/status/1498199000733949963