Russian invasion of Ukraine

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Increase the readiness of the Rocket Forces

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is that the nuclear red button in front of sergei ?

don't trust 'em

https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

TL / DL

The initial Russian assault was predicated on a lighting attack that assumed the Zelensky government would collapse immediately. It was also aimed to minimize destruction / civilian casualties. It bypassed cities and focussed on taking key roads and junctions en route to Kyiv. It didn't follow Russian military doctrine.

Now they have had a black eye, they will revert to doctine, i.e. use of battalion tactical groups, heavy artillery, establishing air superiority. They have brought in Chechen troops for urban warfare. This phase of the conflict is likely to become far more attritional and brutal.

Additional point - Ukraine has won the information war so far, but the claims of Russian losses are likely to be massively overstated, and this obscures Russian successes, in particular the break out from Crimea. If and when the Russian fronts converge (southern front; north eastern front from Kharkiv, North-western front from the Belarus border), Ukraine's ability to 'win' will be pretty much finished.

Thanks. I'd rather not donate via the British Red Cross though

A few others mentioned on here https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/feb/28/how-can-britons-help-the-people-of-ukraine

State of the parties if 2019 voting patterns are replicated after all of Britain's cities are eviscerated in a devastating nuclear strike:

CON = 36 (-329)
PC = 4 (=)
SF = 3 (-4)
SNP = 3 (-45)
LD = 3 (-8)
LAB = 2 (-200)
Irradiated Wasteland = 599 (+599).

CON MAJORITY OF 21

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Of course the tories are the ones left. The cockroaches of the political spectrum.

Proof that even if nuclear end-of-days, the first past the post system favours our one-party system.

We will remember that Ed couldn’t eat a bacon sandwich when the skin is melting off our faces, and will be thankful of our fate.

Surely we will in thrall to our new Cockroach Overlords of the Irradiated Wasteland, who have a sizeable majority.

Colourful lady is ready for war

UK will lead efforts to block Russia from Interpol

Wow, Russia will join club north Korea way faster than anticipated. They abused Interpol and Europol to intimidate dissidents living abroad.

They also threatened to use it to arrest the judges that lead January 13 case here in Lithuania.

A number of oligarchs publicly asking for negotiations now, including Tinkov and Deripaska.

Now they have had a black eye, they will revert to doctine, i.e. use of Battalion Tactical Groups, heavy artillery, establishing air superiority. They have brought in Chechen troops for urban warfare. This phase of the conflict is likely to become far more attritional and brutal.

I really hope that the response from the West and calls for negotiations will - fingers crossed - prevent things going this far. If they go down this route, they will have to commit not only a huge amount of troops and equipment to do the job, they will also have to keep them there long term, to keep the population in check. All the whilst the Russian economy getting absolutely battered by continued brutal economic sanctions.

This is a thread worth a read, from a well respected follower of international relations;

https://twitter.com/iankearns_/status/1498058964650635276?s=21

Switzerland has agreed to freeze the assets of Putin and his cohorts.

Following a government meeting on Monday, Switzerland’s president, Ignazio Cassis, said the country would immediately freeze the assets of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, and the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, as well as all 367 individuals sanctioned last week by the EU.

Lightening strikes bypassing centres of resistance is very much a Russian tactic but they are supposed to field an unstoppable shock force backed up with 2nd echelon troops to mop up. The BTR-80s shown on the news should be doing the mopping up.

To give you some idea of what will happen if this does move from being a manoeuvre war to a slog through the streets the Red Army allocated 10,000 troops to clear the Reichstag area in WWII.
The prospect of fighting in a built up area is frightening as an eager youth I was in the TA we did FIBUA exercises with a kind of LazerQuest system in our rifles(SAWS). We had to abandon an exercise because the entire battalion (400 troops) was “killed” before clearing a village.

Request to join the EU signed by Ukraine, and FIFA/UEFA ban from World Cup etc. happening too.

Interesting. So what military options does Putin have?

Request to join the EU signed by Ukraine

What does this mean in terms of escalation etc? Sounds like it's going to do more harm than good right now?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/tensions-rise-at-the-3bn-surrey-estate-russian-oligarchs-call-home

Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.

...

However, a few minutes’ walk away at a council estate that backs on the estate it was hard to stop Joy, a 75-year-old retired furniture saleswoman, from speaking her mind about “all those bloody dodgy Russians next door”.

£20m mansions owned by foreign kleptocrats backing onto council estates. Tory Britain epitomised.

Let's hope there isn't a repeat of Grozny. He has form.

It depends what reserve’s he has, if he has 200,000 troops mostly Tank Armies or Motor Rifle units advance through the existing troops and slice off areas of Ukraine trying to disrupt their lines of communication. Don’t be nice about it to get lots of Displaced Persons to clog up Ukrainian supply lines. But I don’t think Putin has or can mobilise enough troops.

If he has less troops he could slog forward using lots of artillery and using what air power he has in limited areas. The democratic world will continue to be outraged. Leaving the west of Ukraine means we can move equipment in. (Are the Poles going to hand over some Mig29s). This won’t be pretty.

If I was him I’d try to take anything, territory/towns then “give” it away in negotiations to keep the Crimea water supply and the Donbas corridor. Quickly with any troops I could muster before I was deposed.

Odds of Putin being alive in 1 week / month / year / decade?

One potential way it plays out
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1498233549648187392

Yeah. He needs to agree a concession from the Ukraine that makes it look like he’s got something from this or he’s toast