You are reading a single comment by @Howard and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
-
Now they have had a black eye, they will revert to doctine, i.e. use of Battalion Tactical Groups, heavy artillery, establishing air superiority. They have brought in Chechen troops for urban warfare. This phase of the conflict is likely to become far more attritional and brutal.
I really hope that the response from the West and calls for negotiations will - fingers crossed - prevent things going this far. If they go down this route, they will have to commit not only a huge amount of troops and equipment to do the job, they will also have to keep them there long term, to keep the population in check. All the whilst the Russian economy getting absolutely battered by continued brutal economic sanctions.
Howard
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/
TL / DL
The initial Russian assault was predicated on a lighting attack that assumed the Zelensky government would collapse immediately. It was also aimed to minimize destruction / civilian casualties. It bypassed cities and focussed on taking key roads and junctions en route to Kyiv. It didn't follow Russian military doctrine.
Now they have had a black eye, they will revert to doctine, i.e. use of battalion tactical groups, heavy artillery, establishing air superiority. They have brought in Chechen troops for urban warfare. This phase of the conflict is likely to become far more attritional and brutal.
Additional point - Ukraine has won the information war so far, but the claims of Russian losses are likely to be massively overstated, and this obscures Russian successes, in particular the break out from Crimea. If and when the Russian fronts converge (southern front; north eastern front from Kharkiv, North-western front from the Belarus border), Ukraine's ability to 'win' will be pretty much finished.