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@rodan
Nuclear escalation is the big worry for me too. Putin’s never going to nuke Kyiv - his nuclear posture is aimed at making NATO and the EU step back so that he can get on with his plans for Ukraine.
Unless there is a way out of the corner he’s in that lets him save face, then I think the chances of us getting out of all this without him setting a nuke off are diminishing. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s going to start a nuclear exchange off the bat, much more likely is an atmospheric test somewhere - essentially sabre rattling. But once he’s broken that taboo, the chances of accidental or inadvertent escalation are what worries me.
That’s not to say NATO/EU should back down in the face of nuclear blackmail, that would be disastrous. If it works for him this time, he’ll keep doing it.