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Or it plays into Putin's narrative that the West is out to get Russia and public opinion swings behind him.
What scared me from the outset is that the chain of events is incalculable once a war starts.
Noone can confidently say where this ends on a spectrum from a ceasefire this week to nuclear apocalypse.
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that's the gamble isn't it... that the Russian people don't want this or understand it, and that the cost will be crippling, and it will create the conditions for uprising in Russia against Putin.
it feels like that is the gamble, and it's a big one if it is.