Russian invasion of Ukraine

Surely our estimations of Russian military capabilities are based on rank uninformed speculation

ftfy

The idea that anyone other than military intelligence services on either side has any clue as to the capabilities is entirely, monumentally, risible.

Anything we see or know, as lay observers, has been through so many filters, it may as well be posted by an Instagram influencer.

And some comments here appear to have been just that.

Open source suggests the opposite.

I wasn't suggesting it was a "lay observers" thing! Our = government, not the forum.
By observation I guess intelligence is a better term, I meant not just what they say they have. I thought countries spend quite a lot of effort so that they have a reasonable idea of how much military other countries have?

Some good analysis of why the Russians are limited logistically, esp. due to their dependence on rail.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Some online mistranslating “contract” and “conscript”.

That would be the case if Russia hadn't been involved in the middle east for years now. Russian military capabilities are well known and not just by intelligence services

Thanks for sharing, that’s a great article imo

well this is utterly terrifying:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1497921990455353350

Lewis Goodall at the Polish border;

Refugees fleeing from a modern European warzone. Put it in black and white it could be 80 yrs ago. A 19yr old told me her family had made her leave them in Lviv (a 1.5 day journey which would normally have taken a few hours): “so if the worst happens, at least one of us is left"

On the freezing of foreign reserves of the central bank announced last night

And here we bump into the limits of central-bank sanctions as a financial weapon: A weapon that altogether crushes an adversary’s banking system may be just a little too powerful. The West wants to administer penalties that cause Russia to alter its aggressive behavior, not to crush the Russian economy. The central-bank weapon is so strong that it might indeed provoke Putin into fiercer aggression as a desperate last gamble.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

I really hope Xi Jinping has some leverage / influence with Putin.

You're not allowed to join Nato if you have an ongoing border dispute.

Correct but Finland don't have an ongoing border dispute so...

(I was talking about Finland, I think you read this as Ukraine - it was a bit ambiguous)

Peace talks announced between Russia and Ukraine facilitated by Belarus
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1497931438532014081

As he puts nukes on " special alert".

Ignoring the fact that NATO would have to agree to let Finland join (why would they?), Finland joining NATO would be a remarkable change in a policy that has allowed them to remain free and prosper throughout the cold war. It's a topic that people there are very attuned to and support is hardly universal. And I wouldn't say a Russian invasion of Ukraine would exactly push people running to NATO. I honestly can't see it happening.

Having said that, Finland closing airspace to Russia is a pretty remarkable thing.

There is a comment which resonates that if he wanted to use them, he wouldnt be telling people they're on special alert.

Putin's invasion of UK is very similar to a fascist dictator in London
invading Ireland on the pretext that it is part of the UK. The
historical relationships between Russia and Ukraine, and the UK and
Ireland have a lot of similarity, including genocidal famine.

https://twitter.com/nickreeves9876/status/1497921027581566983

edited fake news about a Gazprom suicide.

Likely he does not want to use them and prefer if the west just cave in and thus threatens to use them. That does not equal he would not under circumstances where he felt cornered. Just the fact that he is willing to escalate the dialogue to involve nuclear weapons is idd terrifying.

Imo tho that kind of talk will eventually lead to the negotiating table most likely and the west granting him a way out without looking like he retreated with the tale between his legs. Lets hope so at least.

Germany have made huge changes to their long standing policies today as well, massive increase in defence spending, lifting export controls to conflict zones etc.

My daughter just climbed this tree and found a 1 Rouble coin up it!

Part of the foreign reserves?

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Germany have made huge changes to their long standing policies today as well, massive increase in defence spending, lifting export controls to conflict zones etc.

True, and by all reports that's pretty a big deal.

But I don't know enough (anything) about Germany on this to say whether that would be equivalent to Finland applying, being invited, and accepting the invitation to, join NATO. I somehow expect not.

Finland and sweden are closely connected in this regard. They would likely agree both joins or none of them. So far in sweden there is not a majority amongst the parties to join nato but its getting closer n closer here as well.

I think however their reasoning is that now is not a good time and could likely just bring more fuel to the fire.

Yeah, public support had been going up in Finland as well, and there's been no real political consensus to join, let alone a really strong public desire.

Finland nailed walking the line between the USSR/Russia and NATO (we even got a new word out of it: Finlandization). There's a reason the putin/trump summit was in Helsinki . To radically change course at this moment would really, really, surprise me.