Russian invasion of Ukraine

Surely our estimations of Russian military capabilities are based on observations not what they say they are?

Putin may be a lot of things but he is not dumb enough to surround himself with military personal that bring thousands of tanks but forgot to bring the fuel.

I'd presume that Putin didn't personally plan the logistics, what forces to deploy where etc.

And his inner circle apparently thought it was a bluff too:
https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010586/putins-inner-circle-reportedly-seemed-to-think-his-military-buildup-was

What if they just did bluff-level prep, not real war prep?

The other (possibly more obvious) scenario is that the higher than anticipated level of resistance is making it hard to get the fuel and other logistical supplies through.

During the Cold War it suited both sides to exaggerate Soviet capabilities despite the west knowing a lot of their equipment was unserviceable or obsolete. Maybe the habit has continued.
There is little mention in the press of a he drubbing Turkey gave a Russian mechanised unit last year

Finland closes its airspace.

Seems inevitable that they'll be joining NATO now.

Russia has threatened military action if they do.

Ironic that the actions of Putin - who apparently doesn't want NATO expansion - are actually speeding it up.

There’s security camera footage of Russian soldiers looting a supermarket which at least suggests their rations are terrible

are there any protests in london today / tomorrow ?

I wouldn’t read much into that at all.
I’ve bought all the things at a petrol station during the middle of a bike ride, and I wasn’t in the middle of an active war zone.

If ever there was a reason to eat chocolates and drink energy drinks, it’s when you’re being shot at…

I wasn’t in the middle of an active war zone.

I’d like to know where you cycle

Ha

That's a long queue at atm.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/t2j9s1/russians_have_found_out_about_the_sanctions_and/

Also this: https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/02/27/eto-budet-venesuela-s-iadernymi-raketami - google translate does a good job

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Ah, first video evidence of Ukranian drones thrashing Russian vehicles starting to emerge. Was wondering why it took so long. While the politics were different, the recent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan were also a test between Armenia's mostly Russian style military vs. Azerbaijan who have had the chance to cherry pick their kit from places like Turkey and Israel. Lots of videos online of Russian-made tanks being picked out like fish in a barrel.
Knowing that a relatively small drone can sneak up on you any moment has got to be terrible for Russian morale.

Try Trafalgar Sq or the Russian Embassy - don't know of plans but that's where there were protests yesterday and Friday

Downing St, Parliament Sq?

Boris staged a photo op at Brize Norton with a transport plane of “aid” that according to the replies took off, circled Poland without landing and came straight back with the pilot being heard on radio asking wtf am I supposed to be doing?

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoePorterUK/status/1497694675850956802

Seems like the absolute best kind of aid. “I can’t/won’t give you (more) bullets, but I can stop them killing you”

Trouble is, no matter how many bullet proof vests, helmets and mobile hospitals you have, if someone fires a round from a tank at you then you will be killed. I suspect the Ukrainians were rather more grateful for the 40 artillery pieces.

True, true…

So what is Putin's next play? Destroying Kharkiv with thermobaric weapons?

An gas leak has closed Whitehall to protests. What unlucky timing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MetPoliceEvents/status/1497844200536260610

Liz Truss says she's OK with Britons going to Ukraine to fight. But are there not Britons in UK prisons for going abroad to fight Isis? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/liz-truss-says-she-would-back-britons-going-to-ukraine-to-fight-russia

I think that's because the kurds (PKK?) they fought for were a prescribed organisation -
there's no law against going to offer your services in a foreign war...you just can't join up with people its illegal to support

Meon Valley was not an active war zone last time I checked, other than between cyclists and Range Rover owners…

The story is that Russia dropped paratroopers near Kyiv. They didn't have heavy weapons and were easily beaten by Ukrainians. If you combine that with the other story that Russian tanks which drove over the border have outrun their supply lines, you can see how Ukraine would have held them off. Maybe the Chechens could only bring a few of their tanks to bear because of a lack of fuel? But who knows. I doubt journalists are able to confirm what's true and what's propaganda.

I'm also hoping that Russian generals are dragging their feet because they don't want to kill Ukrainian civilians. Some of the Russian officers must be deeply unhappy about all this. It wouldn't be hard for them to blow up a bridge, blame it on Ukrainians, and then have an excuse for a fuel convoy to be days later than planned.

amongst, or part of, the horror of this i worried about the ecological affects of the oil explosions recently reported and briefly also got sucked into RTs broadcasting while flicking channels, another kind of toxic waste

You're not allowed to join Nato if you have an ongoing border dispute. Nato doesn't like the mutual defence clause to be invoked too easily. It's only happened once in Nato history, i.e. because of the 9/11 attack.

quite amazingly bizarre, i used to (i guess around 2011) watch rt for the Keiser report which used to be really good. the stuff on there this morning was nuts