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  • Not to mention the internal political risk of a EU member, West-facing Ukraine being successful and prosperous.

    I think this is the crux. I read Ukrainians looked down on Poland as poor until Poland joined the EU and saw their prosperity increase. The knock on impact is Ukraine joins the EU and then western Russia looks at Ukraine and thinks they’d like a bit on that too and looks to Moscow to join the eu which can’t happen without massive political change. The Russian people then get feisty and there’s new revolution.

  • Yes, that's the biggest threat to Putin - seeing nearby democracies prosper.

    Also a lot of Ukrainians work in EU already and they tasted a bit of that good life western democracies and capitalism might bring. But as far as I remember they were always leaning towards the west.

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