Russian invasion of Ukraine

Sets a really shitty precedent and potentially leads to countries withdrawing their money for fear it is no longer safe in Central Banks.

I'd say it sets a pretty good precedent. Invade your neighbours and you lose your cash. After all, where else are they going to put their money? Bitcoin?

The argument against is why would you leave your money exposed going forwards if you know a handful of countries can freeze it on a whim

I agree it is potentially a good thing to do in this case but putting forward the argument for why it hasn't been used before and it has the potential to have an extremely detrimental impact on everyday citizens

See the Afghan example
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/chief-warns-millions-afghans-verge-death-82247628

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-13/biden-s-decision-on-afghanistan-s-7-billion-in-foreign-reserves-is-cruel

Guardian live feed:

all 10 of Russia’s largest financial institutions had now been
subjected to sanctions – “holding nearly 80% of the Russian banking
sector’s total assets”.

As a result, the official said: “Russia’s government borrowing costs
have more than doubled to almost 17%. The S&P credit rating agency has
downgraded Russia to junk status. Within 24 hours of our actions the
demand for cash in Russia spiked 58 fold, according to reports, and
the Russian government scrambled to deplete its own resources to try
and shore up its banks and its currency. In short, Russia has become a
global economic and financial pariah.”

They've spent a lot of money on deep shelters in recent years, presumably to mitigate this exact scenario.

Just doing some (probably over)simplistic deduction
Is China going to broker peace negotiations?
Is that what diplomatic pressure needs to be pointing at right now?

Finland’s airspace closure would be significant. Not only would it
extend the ‘wall’ and make it even harder for Russia to fly into/over
Europe (much longer flight times, extra fuel, etc) but the Finns would
make this decision knowing full well Russia will retaliate.

https://twitter.com/Omz2468/status/1497721603844718595

Some of China’s biggest banks have stopped credit for the purchase of Russian commodities. President Xi spoke to Putin yesterday and told him to negotiate.
I think China is more worried about economic consequences for themselves than morality but it is good to see them do something.

Another captured russian: https://www.instagram.com/p/CadVRf1AuwE/

-Why a communication personnel in tech service?
-Not enough people, sending only contract servicemen.

There's an opinion Putin started with young inexperienced kids before sending more seasoned troops. I hope not.

It won't be young kids operating the heavy artillery :/

https://mobile.twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161

It's logical assumption that more complex artillery is operated by more experienced people but at the same time my significant other's cousin's boyfriend is operating a rocket launcher 4 months after joining Lithuanian army here.

Of course rocket launcher might not be heavy-heavy artillery but I'd assume war equipment has a quite gentle learning curve and is easy to use.

My mom still knows how to assemble ak-47 in some seconds because it was part of what they teached in schools in Soviet Union.

Also:

A friend of mine who follows more of russian media outlets said their "experts" still are saying sanctions won't impact them but at the same time for some products consumer prices grew for 30% in just those couple of days.

In electronic shops there are signs saying "prices might not be correct, check with supplier" or something and when you check the actual price it's + 30%

That's a really interesting summary.

I don't think commentators are saying the problem came from NATO expansion as such. I think everyone acknowledges that the problem is Putin.

But if you're offering a balanced view then you've got to explain the strategic importance to Russia of the ex-USSR countries bordering Russia's warm water ports, Putin's view of the historical ties, and what the potential risk of a Western military force on your boarder is. Not to mention the internal political risk of a EU member, West-facing Ukraine being successful and prosperous.

Probably disinfo but amazing if not:

https://twitter.com/TarasKuzio/status/1497801966763884545

Seems like the absolute best kind of aid. “I can’t/won’t give you (more) bullets, but I can stop them killing you”

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Also brilliant:

Using Stalin’s palace, a gift from the Soviets to Poland, as a place to support the victims of a Russian trying to rebuild the FSU

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Not to mention the internal political risk of a EU member, West-facing Ukraine being successful and prosperous.

I think this is the crux. I read Ukrainians looked down on Poland as poor until Poland joined the EU and saw their prosperity increase. The knock on impact is Ukraine joins the EU and then western Russia looks at Ukraine and thinks they’d like a bit on that too and looks to Moscow to join the eu which can’t happen without massive political change. The Russian people then get feisty and there’s new revolution.

I know russians outnumber Ukraine in pretty much everything but with every tank destroyed I wanna go on google and check how many remain

https://www.instagram.com/p/CaeZlhqg0Nv/

Yes, that's the biggest threat to Putin - seeing nearby democracies prosper.

Also a lot of Ukrainians work in EU already and they tasted a bit of that good life western democracies and capitalism might bring. But as far as I remember they were always leaning towards the west.

Not sure if it's true, but supposedly the French govt have given their blessing to Ukrainian legionnaires to return immediately to Ukraine in order to take up the fight. My reason for being unsure about the veracity, is that the thing I read said they were taking their arms and equipment with them which would look dangerously like a French army deployment to a Russian soldier which has the potential to take things to a new level.

Of course there may be 10 soldiers it applies to in which case, getting a military flight to Poland and carrying your personal weapons over the border doesn't really look like the Foreign Legion rolling into the fight.

If true, hope the Russian soldiers are given asylum, assuming things will not go well if they go home.

The numbers being reported yesterday of Russian deaths vs captures is incredibly sad if they are largely unwilling and inexperienced. 4000 to 200? I haven't seen more recent figures. Or up to date figures of Ukrainian casualties.

Hoping for information/propoganda to turn the tide (more Russian soldiers and people realise what is happening and rejecting it) but it feels far too hopeful and unreal.

Really striking how many of the Ukrainians mentioned in reports (fighting, challenging, confronting Russians) have Russian passports or are from Russia.

Liz Truss on BBC saying she supports UK citizens going to fight in Ukraine, not something I expected to hear with my morning coffee

Finland closes its airspace.

good roundup for those not following continuously
https://fx.substack.com/p/ukraine-roundup-february-26-2022

Finland preparing to close airspace, I should say:

Finland will close its airspace to Russian planes, joining a raft of
other European countries.

Finland “is preparing to close its airspace to Russian air traffic”,
transport minister Timo Harakka wrote on Twitter. Finland shares an
800-mile border with Russia.

Other countries including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia,
Germany and Poland have blocked airspace to Russian flights, provoking
huge detours. On Saturday, Lithuania said it will block Russian
flights, cutting a quick route from Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave to
Ukraine.

Maybe the capabilities of the Russian forces are being over estimated.

I can think of plenty of reasons why plenty of people on many sides would find it useful to big up their capabilities.