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late to the party here but I agree with this.
over 15 years or more, Putin has repeatedly tested the appetite of the west to take meaningful action against Russia and found it to be extremely limited.
In fact, as has been pointed out extensively elsewhere, Russian money and energy and oligarchs and who knows what else have been welcomed pretty much all over. So you could argue that
a) we could have anticipated this;
b) Putin thinks the international reaction will be short lived and things will return to the previous status in which Russia is largely accommodated in the world order.
ChasnotRobert
I know this probably makes me an “idiotic” “putin apologist” “traitor” but (fully recognising that (1) putin is to blame for this unlawful and immoral invasion and (2) now may not the time to engage in solipsistic soul searching - though if not now, when…)… the west will have to have an honest reckoning with the strategic errors that contributed to us reaching this point. this has a good overview of that context (and other aspects) https://prospect.org/world/worse-than-a-crime-its-a-blunder-russia-ukraine-lieven-interview/
edit: I think it’s kinda gross to view and reflect on this conflict through the prism of our own internal UK politics - this is mostly why I’ve been trying (trying!) to keep out of this thread and others… but I will say that some of the commentary I’ve seen this week from UK politicians and commentators has been, putting it politely, quite frankly deranged. and dangerous !