Russian invasion of Ukraine

Trident submarines leaving Faslane this morning.

Large amount of troops and strikes being launched from Belarus, will Russian troops ever leave when this is over?

I guess it depends how the invasion goes. If Russia gets bogged down in there rather than a quick win, it's hard to see if the Putin govt can survive, so they'd need to get their troops home. If they win, why would they leave? Lukashenko is all-in with Putin both domestically and internationally so he's more like one of the full-fat Soviet era vassal states than a best mate sort of thing.

I meant will they leave Belarus, Lukashenko has no ability to remove them, so will they just annex Belarus and spin that as a win at home. Lukashenko only survived because Putin backed him, why would they risk letting it having a revolution in the future when you already have your troops there now

Is there any sort of accurate map showing where the front lines are?

That's what I meant. If the invasion goes well, they'll leave the troops in Belarus. If the invasion is a disaster, they'll need to shore up things at home so I'd imagine Putin will pull his forces back whether it leaves Lukashenko exposed or not.

I have an employee in Ukraine, and we were making a plan for him to leave.

As of late last night, men are no longer allowed to leave Ukraine.

We're doing the right thing of course... he'll be paid into the future even without him turning up for work, with only occasional check-ins expected at his convenience. We're keeping his job available, and ensuring he doesn't fall into poverty, whilst offering support for visas to EU countries.

But the reality is that men cannot leave Ukraine, and conscription has arrived.

I would be amazed if anyone knows where the front lines are accurately, including the Russian and Ukrainian militaries.

This is going to be very bloody, and it will go on for a long time.

Who is stopping him? The Ukrainian authorities? I had a meeting with a partner yesterday who have 50 developers in Ukraine. They are trying to relocate them to Italy.

Who is stopping him? The Ukrainian authorities?

Yes.

Conscription orders are being passed (or have), and borders are already closed to men of fighting age.

As Velocio says, borders were closed last night to all men under 60, a lot were in cars queuing at borders with their families and have had to leave them there

The thought of being conscripted during a conflict is horrendous, the thought of being anything but young, fit and active and being called up must be doubly horrendous

Apparently fuel is beginning to be rationed at petrol stations to 20L and there are ever increasing images on twitter of bridges being blown by Ukrainians to slow the advance but imagine many in Eastern Ukraine will land up finding it increasingly hard to leave

Trident submarines leaving Faslane this morning.

I hesitate to call bullshit, but you can’t just make this kind of statement without a good source. Facts matter at times like this.

I have an impeccable source, who observed it with their own eyes. If I thought it was sensitive information I wouldn't post it online.

I hesitate to call bullshit, but you can’t just make this kind of statement without a good source. Facts matter at times like this.

While I completely agree with your point, I would find it incredibly unlikely that they have not left Faslane in the last few days. Its what happens every time there is a major geo political event that the UK is invovled with. If they aren't already out, that is.

Is there anything you don't know?

I have a colleague currently sheltering in his basement in Kharkiv 😞

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Who is this?

Is there anything you don't know?

Oooh, snippy!

Just wondering

I have a colleague currently sheltering in his basement in Kharkiv 😞

Same, my two former colleagues Artem and Vlodymyr are in their basements. Artem is "working from basement". Humbling.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497156832170815516

Obviously will treat that with the healthy scepticism required until confirmed, but is there a chance that use of conventional weapons, which are often part constructed from depleted uranium and sometimes contain white phosphorous, possibly to blame too?

Edit: Can't explain it, really...seems to be over a quite large area.

Someone yesterday suggested it was the heavy armour kicking up a lot of radioactive dust in to the air as they tracked over areas that aren't normally disturbed and not unsurprising but who knows. Hard to think of any reasons why the Russians would have any interest in disturbing the waste though.