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  • I guess it depends how the invasion goes. If Russia gets bogged down in there rather than a quick win, it's hard to see if the Putin govt can survive, so they'd need to get their troops home. If they win, why would they leave? Lukashenko is all-in with Putin both domestically and internationally so he's more like one of the full-fat Soviet era vassal states than a best mate sort of thing.

  • I meant will they leave Belarus, Lukashenko has no ability to remove them, so will they just annex Belarus and spin that as a win at home. Lukashenko only survived because Putin backed him, why would they risk letting it having a revolution in the future when you already have your troops there now

  • That's what I meant. If the invasion goes well, they'll leave the troops in Belarus. If the invasion is a disaster, they'll need to shore up things at home so I'd imagine Putin will pull his forces back whether it leaves Lukashenko exposed or not.

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