Russian invasion of Ukraine

I found this very informative but grim though I don't know the blog or the author. TLDR; Russia always meant to invade and will likely succeed in the short term, there is little the west can do, but it will be incredibly difficult for Russia to hold Ukraine.

Russia is thus embarking, with fewer friends and fewer resources, on a war that may prove to be far more difficult than the wars the United States struggled with in Afghanistan and Iraq.

https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-war-in-ukraine/