Russian invasion of Ukraine

With Ukraine producing a lot of wheat and Russia a lot of oil sanctions are going to take a while to have an effect

Swift is not the crushing blow that some say it is.

Probably not to Putin himself, to my knowledge no one has managed to show significant evidence that he has offshore accounts. But it would hopefully hurt his inner circle. IIRC the Magnitsky act really did sting quite a few of them, kicking them out of SWIFT altogether would be like the Magnitsky x 10.

My worry is that this is how the conflict widens. I worry that there are plenty of other countries happy to help Putin with USD services.

Same legendary Garry Kasparov

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Russian warship, go f*** yourselves': Final words of Ukrainian border guards protecting Snake Island – just 40 miles from Romanian border in the Black Sea – before Kremlin navy opened fire killing all 13 of them when they refused to surrender

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10549683/Russian-warship-f-Final-words-Ukrainian-border-guards-Snake-Island.html?fbclid=IwAR25ZZaMDHA6uW3jQssYPD6vDr50bO-BhmLXa3DqaEw_ibOhMX7DM3xjzSA

other countries happy to help

Don't have a link, as I saw it on the news yesterday, but it seems that the plan B is to channel all USD transactions through a Chinese alternative to SWIFT.

Chinese alternative to SWIFT.

CIPS

Putin has been gearing up for more Yuan in his life for years. It aint no SWIFT but its a part solution. Combine that with off shore gold wealth and crypto, and maybe Russia could limp along for quite a long time. In any case, this is not something that the Russians have forgotten to plan for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System

I found this very informative but grim though I don't know the blog or the author. TLDR; Russia always meant to invade and will likely succeed in the short term, there is little the west can do, but it will be incredibly difficult for Russia to hold Ukraine.

Russia is thus embarking, with fewer friends and fewer resources, on a war that may prove to be far more difficult than the wars the United States struggled with in Afghanistan and Iraq.

https://acoup.blog/2022/02/25/miscellanea-understanding-the-war-in-ukraine/

Genuinely struggling to think of an outcome from this situation that isn't genuinely shit. Not sure there is one.

Just quoting Boris this, just because I think it captures what a Swift ban might mean for Russia. It is not a killer blow, more a very big inconvenience that they have had time to plan to partially mitigate. It could also be framed as a sanction that would have a similarly tough impact on the EU and US as Russia itself.

Why would a Swift ban be so serious?
Boris Johnson told MPs it would harm the Russian economy if it were locked out of Swift. Run-of-the-mill transactions would need to be conducted directly between banks, or routed through fledgling rival systems, adding to costs and creating delays.

Why is the US reluctant to implement a ban?
One reason is that the impact on Russian businesses might not be so serious. The head of a large Russian bank, VTB, said recently he could use other channels for payments, such as phones, messaging apps or email. Russian banks could also route payments via countries that have not imposed sanctions, such as China, which has set up its own payments system to rival Swift. A ban on Russia using Swift could accelerate a the use of China’s rival Cips system. There is also a fear that it could damage to the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, and accelerate the use of alternatives such as cryptocurrencies.

Yeah, I know. It seems their move for Chernobyl is because it’s the largest source of power in Ukraine apart from Russian gas, which they’ll probably find they’re a bit short of right now.

Yeah, I know. It seems their move for Chernobyl is because it’s the largest source of power in Ukraine apart from Russian gas, which they’ll probably find they’re a bit short of right now.

Just an opinion, but I think taking Chernobyl was more about it being almost literaly the shortest route between Kiev, Belarus and Russia. If you're planning on mounting a mechanised infantry assault on Kiev today, it would make things a lot easier.

Just generally, links with visible URL's are preferred by me, (especially when it comes with a warning from the OP)

(Edit: Thanks for the edits upthread)

That's basically the balance they are struggling to strike, how do you impose painful sanctions without accelerating Chinese dominance. And as you've said, most of these sanctions were threatened after Crimea, so Putin has known exactly what you plan for, hence building up massive foreign currency reserves, signing up to Cips, starting work on new export markets. Just on his foreign currency reserves they think he can fund his existing budget for the next four years as they have such a small debt to service now.

Dons tinfoil hat, seeing how it went for Libya and Iraq when they suggested no longer selling oil in USD, I can't see US keen at the prospect of Russia selling it in Yuan and why wouldn't Putin want to, he is going to need it to service any debt he now takens on which will no doubt come from Chinese markets at exorbitant rates

It no longer operates though and is used for nuclear waste storage now.

^ what they said

The only hope would be life becoming so hard for Russians that Putin can't stay in power but I somehow doubt that would happen.

More likely is it becomes so inconvenient for oligarchs that Putin can't stay in power.

Germany paying their gas bills in doge coin before the year is over.

The BBC news suggested that it was mainly because it was a big open space on the invasion route so would be a good staging area.

https://youtu.be/rwBizawuIDw

More news from Kiev: Russian occupants tried a false flag operation - took over a couple of ukrainian military trucks, dressed up in UA army uniforms and were heading towards the city center.

They've been identified and neutralised.
Video here, graphic, nsfw
https://www.facebook.com/mykolakn/posts/10223293417297900

There's a risk of more false flag operations happening.

P.S. Sorry for spamming here so much, but it's all I do these days - following the news and spreading the truth, fighting the misinformation and trolls

Allegedly Russia ordered 45000 body bags.
That's how many soldiers of their own they're planning to sacrifice.

Also seen on twitter they have a mobile crematorium they take in to the field, urgh such a waste of life

Guess it is something you don't think about unless a military leader but on Newsnight, the night before the invasion started they said intelligence believed the invasion was imminent as they have information that Russia had moved sufficient blood stocks to the staging area which I guess is the reality of war but I found it a horrifying thought that that is the reality

Germany paying their gas bills in doge coin before the year is over.

Or Germans, seeing inflation wiping out their prudent savings, and the collapse of manufacturing industries, decide it's time for a strong leader who puts Germany first.

.