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But the West will ramp up the punitive actions now. More sanctions, even of gas and oil, even though the West will struggle without his gas. (We can buy some from Australia!) Also more Nato troops stationed close to Russia. I'm not sure how that hurts him. But hopefully there's a way?
Does Putin have any limits? Is he just a balls to the wall thug? He jailed a 16 year old boy the other day for plotting to bomb the FSB HQ in Minecraft. He must have set himself some major goals before he retires. He changed the law so he can carry on til 2036, by which time he'll be 83. Maybe he wants much more than Ukraine. Maybe Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova...anywhere with pro-Western leanings is in his sights. If he keeps his troops in Belarus he can blockade all the Baltic states. He wants them pretty badly. He could use all his hybrid warfare tricks to degrade and destabilise them and take Nato right to the brink of war.
eta: there's a fascinating article in the WSJ about Putin's endgame https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-endgame-unravel-the-post-cold-war-agreements-that-humiliated-russia-11645482412#refreshed?mod=hp_lead_pos2 It quotes Rodric Braithwaite, who was British ambassador to Moscow when the Soviet Union collapsed:
“Putin is in a position—not to compare like with like—that Mrs. Thatcher was in 1989, 1990, when she was losing her political instincts,” he said. “The best guess is that he’s lost the instincts he had of knowing where to stop.”
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nick_h.
Also in case anyone hasn't heard this theory, as I like it:
One of Putin's aims with all of this is to create space for his other actions. Previously people were talking about sanctions, asset freezes, etc. in relation to various Russian cyber attacks assassinations on foreign soil etc.
Now all of those punitive actions are threatened punishments for invasion. Which means they'll be off the table for all of their other nefarious actions. That's given him more leeway while demonstrating that Russia is a global power.