Investment & Investing

what happens if it doesn't go down; how long do you sit on the sidelines waiting for the best time to buy back in?

if it does go down, how do you tell when you are catching a falling knife or buying in at a better price; better than what?

of course, you could get lucky and time it but the odds are against you.

I've been reading alot stuff about valuations and inflation aswell other various potential signs.
Some very well known grand names who have historically good investing track records (buffet et al) all seem to agree.
Even so still very difficult move to pull off. Timing the market had always been a notoriously difficult task.

It's not that it's difficult because that implies that, if you work really hard, you can do it. The problem you are up against is that, as the stock market responds to events, it is not possible to predict it reliably as you can't foresee the future. So, rather than difficult, I would say it is impossible. It's like trying to predict if a coin will be heads or tails, you can't try really hard and get it right, you can only guess and hope you are lucky.
OK, with the stock market there are things you can analyse that might be able to increase your probability slightly, but any such system would need you to make lots of small bets rather than one massive one.

Yes, agreed. Article in the FT today about asset managers increasing their cash holdings.

However in the detail it provides that net cash held by the basket of fund managers surveyed increased from 5% to 5.3% of their overall portfolios.

Same with Buffet, Berkshire has a huge cash pile and they have sold out of some companies (pharma mainly, I think I read?) but they still have a much larger amount remaining invested.

So it's a bit of a different strategy to sell everything and buy back in later.

Makes sense. More sensible option Might sell 50% (or less) and look to rebuy later. Not trying to call the bottom but if I can buy at 10% discount it'll be worth doing.
Gotta be in it to win it.

And if you have to buy at a 10% premium it won't.
Good luck - you'll need it with that strategy!

Gotta be out of it to win it?

Another way to think of it, is if you move 10k to cash and the market moves up 25%, you've still got 10k cash.

You're only risking potential earning, which isn't really risk at all imo when you think of it in terms of cash.

No no no

With inflation so high, having a large cash holding doesn't seem sensible to me unless you are planning to withdraw it all soon.

Realising they can't make KitKat chunkys any smaller, Nestle are just gonna make them more spendy

You wonder at the exact chain of events that led to Norfolk CC suing Tim Cook & co.

Laughed when I read the headline and saw it was also talking about Durex. I guess they are not going to get much milage out of making their product smaller!

A better analogy is to think of it in terms of trains.

If there is a train and you decide not to get on it but get on one a couple of hours later, your watch still says the same time as if you had got on the first train. But you won't get to your destination until a couple of hours later.

Same with investing - if you decide not to invest you'll still have as much cash, but you won't reach your investment goals until later in life. Unless you get lucky and the market tanks. But the odds are against that happening.

Similar article re: Heineken in the FT the other day about beer prices going up.

Yeah. It's been a running gag between myself and possibly Wildwest about the shrinkflation of KitKats over the years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-02-16/best-vests-to-project-authority-stay-stylish-at-home-and-in-the-office

Lol!!

The styling and fabric of a vest can project power in different ways, however: Lapels, like the ones on the Tom Beckbe version below, “project authority, full stop,” Rosenfeld says

Softer materials such as merino wool, mohair, and cashmere have what he calls “receding” authority. “It’s about being more ooshy gooshy.”

What the fuck?

dont resist it, you are going to become a Google Bro soon

Get the Moncler one

Be someone and go Loro Piana

Loro Piana

Their family office was a client at my old shop. Pier Luigi Loro Piana himself requested an update meeting with the portfolio manager, over lunch. I was a minion but somehow allowed to tag along. Prepping what we were going to say took about 5 mins, the discussions about what to wear went on for days! To say yer man was well dressed would be quite the understatement!

"I would rather be hated for who I am than loved for my ooshy gooshy, receding authority Moncler™ Power Vest" - Kurt Cobain

This is why I will never succeed in business.