-
I've been reading alot stuff about valuations and inflation aswell other various potential signs.
Some very well known grand names who have historically good investing track records (buffet et al) all seem to agree.
Even so still very difficult move to pull off. Timing the market had always been a notoriously difficult task.
wildwest-
It's not that it's difficult because that implies that, if you work really hard, you can do it. The problem you are up against is that, as the stock market responds to events, it is not possible to predict it reliably as you can't foresee the future. So, rather than difficult, I would say it is impossible. It's like trying to predict if a coin will be heads or tails, you can't try really hard and get it right, you can only guess and hope you are lucky.
OK, with the stock market there are things you can analyse that might be able to increase your probability slightly, but any such system would need you to make lots of small bets rather than one massive one. -
Yes, agreed. Article in the FT today about asset managers increasing their cash holdings.
However in the detail it provides that net cash held by the basket of fund managers surveyed increased from 5% to 5.3% of their overall portfolios.
Same with Buffet, Berkshire has a huge cash pile and they have sold out of some companies (pharma mainly, I think I read?) but they still have a much larger amount remaining invested.
So it's a bit of a different strategy to sell everything and buy back in later.
frank9755
ChasnotRobert
what happens if it doesn't go down; how long do you sit on the sidelines waiting for the best time to buy back in?
if it does go down, how do you tell when you are catching a falling knife or buying in at a better price; better than what?
of course, you could get lucky and time it but the odds are against you.