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That's super useful - thanks.
Question then, if I know UK addressable audience for FB (ie total number of adults with accounts) and I know the number of adults in the UK, I can use that as the effectiveness?
I'll still be using the audience population and platform population for the specific audience (ie 18-50 yr old men who like football - not my actual audience but you get the point).
For example (made up data):
- I know there are 25m adult men in the UK
- I know that there are 20m adult men with FB accounts (80% effectiveness of FB)
- I know there are 15m people in the UK who match m+football criteria (my universe in your sheet)
- I know I can find 13m people on FB who match m+football criteria (my platform population)
- I know there are 25m adult men in the UK
Soul-
I don't think so. But I'm also not in the industry so might be making up terms
I've assumed you have 30m adults in the UK
So FB has 12m adults
I.e. its reach is 40% of the UK population. maybe a better term is saturation?then the 'effectiveness' % I guessed was that, given someone is on facebook, the chance they saw the ad was 50%
i.e. hit = reach * effectiveness
duncs
Worst case is easy. Find the largest single population % * effectiveness and assume that dominates all the others
best case is similarly easy. Assume no overlap and just keep summing the population*effectiveness until you reach the total population.
For the tough bit I made a guess, and just messing about in Excel (attached) quickly...
I've assumed that the users are randomly spread (which is unlikely).
Starting out
universe population: 30,000,000
effectiveness of no advertising: 0%
so you have 100% of the population untouched
next step
facebook: population 12m (40%)
effectiveness: 50%
so you'd expect someone at random to have a 20% chance of being hit by facebook
so given you have the entire population left, your chance of them being hit by nothing or facebook is 0% + 20%
next, Linkedin
pop: 4m (13.33%)
effectiveness: 75%
random hit by linkedin: 10%
pop hit by linkedin after being missed by the prev lot. (100-20%) * 10% = 8%
total hit population 28%
Twitter
pop: 6m (20%)
effectiveness: 40%
random hit by twitter: 8%
pop hit by linkedin after being missed by the prev lot. (100-28%) * 8% = 5.76%
total hit population 33.76%
etc.