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But once the 'common' 2500 words have been set, there's equal likelihood of them being the answer. So if both swill and skill are in the answer list, either will have the same chance of being right. eg Older and Elder.
I suppose it's down to how wide one's knowledge of 5 letter words is compared with the setters'. But you're probably right in general - I guessed Elver in the Elder one so guilty of exactly your point!
villa-ru
This tallies up with my experience and what I posted a few days ago about 'trying to be too clever'. In my experience the answer is more likely to be a common/simple word than a more obscure word. So skill is more likely than swill and train more likely than argon.