Investment & Investing

I'd actually prefer there to be a crash now**

Doesn't this depend entirely on how much you have already invested vs. how long you expect to buy units for on the cheap?

If you've already got a load invested, then a drop in the market so your monthly price buys more until prices increase again has to last longer for you to be better off.

The higher your monthly acquisitions are as a % of your total investment, the more this makes sense. What matters is how many years gain a drop in market wipes out.

It all depends on your investment horizon. If I wanted to retire next year then yeah I'd be shitting it, because I'd be wanting to sell soon.

As I don't want to retire for another 15 years, I'd actually prefer there to be a crash now**, so that I can buy at a cheaper price, and reap the most benefits of the bounce-back.

HODL

** obviously sucks for whoever's on the receiving end though.

This

What kills me (personally) was i wanted to pull out some on the day before the downward move started, and i convinced myself HODL

DOH

Time in the market > Timing the market

Every
Single
Time

Except if I had, I could've had that moment

it took around 15 years for the FTSE 100 to get back to the late 1999 early 2000 peak, for example.

Yes, you're right, and I'm assuming that people with larger pots have a shorter investment horizon. I think it's called "sequence risk". The crash needs to come at the right time compared to when one wants to sell.

this view overlooks dividend payments though. of which the vast majority of the ftse100 pay out

Also 1999-2000 was lelz

Yes, I get that total returns would be better, and PCA from regular investment over that period would further improve the picture.

Just pointing out that words like "dip" and "bounce" can generate a potentially false sense of how things could play out.

I'm doing a bit of a rejig of my savings and wanted the hive mind's thoughts.
I have a Vanguard SIPP which I will keep contributing to.
I also have a good amount of money in cash ISA, but no S&S ISA.

I was planning on keeping enough readily available cash and transferring the rest of my ISA money into a Vanguard S&S ISA invested in a LifeStrategy Fund.

In my head it makes sense to do the transfer now but keep the money in cash (or bonds?) and then wait for the market to drop before switching to a life strategy fund.

I know that time in the market etc, but in my mind, sticking all my money in right now would be a pretty stupid idea. As it stands I'm getting next to no interest in the cash ISA and since the transfer might take a while I wanted to do it now so it's ready to go when I need.

transfer all now, then drip feed £x every month into lifestrategy

Judging by the hammering I took the past weeks, the market is low.

It's all relative.

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Unless you are talking a fuck tonne of money which would increase your exposure to stock market risk significantly (nice problem to have!) or a really short investment window I would just chuck it all in now and forget about it.

Inflation will eat a load of it whilst you keep it in cash anyway.

Nom nom nom that's the sound of you getting poorer

Dripping a chunk of it in over a period of months makes some sense, trouble with that is it's hard to tell how many months / years you need to span to make the reduction in risk worth the reward and erosion due to inflation.

If it really troubles you then take it out and pay down some debt if you have any.

What if it keeps going up for a year and you never feel it's low enough to buy in? You'll miss out on a year of growth. Drip feed it over 6-12 months if it gives you peace of mind but the evidence suggests you're best off just dumping it all in now.

Anyone have a referral for a decent S&S ISA? Otherwise I'll probably go for Nutmeg (first year free)?

Drip feeding ("dollar cost averaging") is not thought to be of much benefit other than psychological, compared to lump sum investment.
You might invest and then have it plunge, but you'll never know the future, and on average you're better off having longer time in the market.

Otherwise I'll probably go for Nutmeg (first year free)?

Nutmeg is £60 on quidco and £100 voucher for the referee, happy to split

Drip feeding ("dollar cost averaging") is not thought to be of much benefit other than psychological, if you have the option to make a lump sum investment.

.

When I've done that in the past I've just invested all the cash immediately, on the basis that I know the market is going to fall some time but I can't know when. It might crash in an hour or a decade or any time between.

If I was putting it into something really risky and volatile then I would probably drip feed but in a tracker, I'd just stick it in and hope that my timing didn't turn out to be duff.

As others have said, stick it all in now, ride out any short/mid term lumps with the view that longterm its probably the best thing to do.

The only thing that worries me about this drive towards whole market investment is the money is funding a lot of businesses that might not share your values.

Does Investment or Investing efficiently have to give that judgement up.

It doesn't seem to come up very often but it's the biggest reason I have not to invest in that kind of product.

the money is funding a lot of businesses that might not share your values

you can look at ESG ETFs/funds. focus on ethical investing etc. Sharia funds have similar goals

zuckerberg lost $30bn today lol