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@Dammit
It's a lot of different things, rather than one easy answer I suspect.
Alan_tbt gets what I think is the core of it.
The NATO thing - well, look at the recent moves from Finland and Sweden with regards to NATO. It's a response to Russian aggressions, if Russia was not seen as a destabilising, menacing neighbour then neither of these countries would be considering joining.
What happens if rather than sending troops over the border Russia hammers Ukraine with artillery strikes, then once the country collapses sends the troops in "to help restore order"?