-
Thing is... should this happen, the emergency plan could be Scottish independence and they're right back in the game?
The Conservative party are (at a minimum) two parties pretending to be one, it's likely to be more. Johnson was (and maybe still is) capable of holding together low-tax libertarians with the high tax authoritarians, but Sunak and Truss won't be able to.
You'll have the ERG and 2019 intake fighting like cats in a sack, and I suspect ultimately a split.
Be interesting to see if the Scottish Tories split off, we need More Mogg to make that happen, maybe, but it's clear to Ross et al that they're viewed as children who are play-acting, and need to grow up and do what they're told. Depends on how craven they are I suppose.
I think the best outcome would be a VONC which Johnson wins by a wafer thin margin, but is then safe for another year - during which time he'll doubtless be revealed to have done far, far worse than just relentless lockdown partying, but will also refuse to resign.
Hopefully the damage he'll do to the Tories electability will take 20 years to recover.