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They're just sorry that this is a rare something that tory voters are capable of turning on them over.
I think you are right but I also think that relatively recent (as opposed to previously gradual) chipping away at honesty and integrity in government has had a much bigger negative effect on the polls than the Torys have reaslied. This has just been the last straw for many IMHO.
Look at Barnard Castle. Sure, that made people angry for a while based on what Cummings did...but it was actually the lying and the coordinated cover up that made people most angry. Instead of learning from that, they just repeat the same old mistakes.
The fact that the PM and his cabinet are STILL lying about what happened and who knew what demonstrates exactly how sorry they are about it.