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Apology accepted no worries. Been there.
The only thing i was trying to convey is that math tell us that a more contagious virus will results in more deaths on the 28 day after covid test chart than a less contagious one even if the latter is much more dangerous in total. I find this interesting and its also shows that comparing new variants with very different parameters than before with old statistics could be misleading if trying to draw the same conclusions as one were when trying to compare the same variant at different stages in the pandemic.
Wether or not we have more deaths right now than previously or not and what that is down to if so i have no real opinion off. I live in sweden n here the hospitals are full of all kinds of ppl . Last i heard 4 out of 5 beds were not occupied of covid patients. but we are a few weeks behind u guys on the curve. Time will tell if we are moving towards something better or not with this new variant.
As for death by certificate i dont know enough bout this and how it differs from the 28 day after death count to draw any conclusions of my own or even think anything about. really. I guess the accuracy of such data would be down to how eager or not those who make out the certificate is to label unknowns as covid or not. If it corresponds well with excess death i would think they are doing a pretty good job determining the cause of death.
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badboybjorn
@Greenbank
I apologise to @badboybjorn for my tone last night, posting after coming home from the pub is never a good thing.
Maybe I should flip it round, I can see no evidence that Covid deaths are actually falling and that any rise in them is solely down to increased prevalence. A few tweets that say things "could" be limited to the increased prevalence doesn't constitute proof. Are there any where any experts are willing to be more definitive?
I don't doubt that there is some increase in the "28 days" death stats due to increased prevalence, but that doesn't explain the corresponding increases (albeit lagged) in the "covid on death certificate" death stats, which is the argument put forward by many of the experts (when I've finished work for the day I'll try and dig out where I read that.)
So, again, apologies for my tone, but that doesn't change the fact that I disagree with the notion that genuine Covid deaths are falling and that any increase in the stats are solely due to the increased prevalence making more non-Covid related deaths being flagged as Covid.