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I now think he survives.
Possibly for now until the his replacement is established, but I don't think he'll see the other side of a general election. Or at least, whether by removal or resignation I don't think he'll be allowed to remain in a position to run one
Edit: I've just seen the headlines about the party the night before Phillips funeral... not sure that's going to go down well at all.
Can't help feeling the new party allegations actually help Johnson. Will go towards showing an endemic drinking/party culture that puts more blame on the civil servants. He doesn't drink/party much apparently so can pretty easily distance himself from these, apart from the one he has non-apologised for. I now think he survives.