Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Just get them in your arms. The whole reinfection picture is really blurry at the moment because it hasn't been long enough to have good data. I think for the sake of the small chance that you might be feeling a bit groggy on the flight, I'd just have the booster if I was n your shoes.

One thing we do know is that Delta immunity isn't that effective against Omicron, and Delta is still about. A friend of mine caught Omicron only 5 weeks after having Delta. Unlikely to be your situation but still worth considering.

We're four weeks from first symptoms, so think booster is ok.

I wouldn't hang around.

Is there any downside to getting it before we go? Feeling like shit on the plane?

Take a big box of paracetamol . Maybe not if you are connecting in Dubai where it is probably illegal or something.

New shot 4 weeks after infection? I would just wait

4 weeks is the minimum after infection (for adults, children have to wait 12 weeks unless they're high risk).

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

"
If you've had a positive COVID-19 test

If you've had a positive COVID-19 test, you need to wait before getting any dose of the vaccine. You need to:

wait 4 weeks (28 days) if you're aged 18 years old or over
wait 12 weeks (84 days) if you're aged 12 to 17 years old
wait 4 weeks (28 days) if you're aged 12 to 17 years old and at high-risk from COVID-19
"

Personally I'd go for the booster ASAP rather than putting it off until after, but then I only had an odd reaction for about 6h in total after my booster.

Well, they're booked for Saturday so I reckon we'll just go for it. Neither of us has anything worse than a sore arm up until now.

Not looking forward to the pre-departure PCR the day after the booster and five weeks from having covid...

Not looking forward to the pre-departure PCR the day after the booster and five weeks from having covid...

Booster can't affect the PCR as the PCR is looking for bits of viral RNA that aren't present in any of the vaccines.

PCR within 5 weeks of having covid is another matter though. In reality it is only a very small percentage of people that continue to test positive on PCR way after the infection has cleared up. The ONS has figures on this, I think the phrase to look for is "clearance time".

I tested positive for Covid in July last year with zero symptoms - wife and little one both had something so we went for a test - they both came back negative.

I had my second jab 3 weeks later in order to get into France for a holiday. No side affects from the jab whatsoever.

Number 4 going in my arm today.

I tested possitive 6 weeks after my first possitive test but then again it took me about 8 weeks to get well.

Reckon we'll get a badge or something when we hit 10 - like they do/did with the blood donating?

Yup, I've done the reading, but it won't help the 24h nerves waiting for the result. Aus isn't a cheap flight to miss :/

Could always become tennis #1 as a backup

Guys.
The 4th jab doesn't go in your arm.

I hope so! Maybe a nice star or something.

Yep, I did my latest ONS PCR test yesterday, confidently answering "no" to the "Have you been in contact with anyone in the last 7 days who has subsequently tested positive?" question.

Of course the day after I find out someone I played 5-a-side with, and then went to the pub with, last Thursday has tested positive. And also my BiL who I had a boozy night with on Saturday, but then he most likely picked it up at the football that day so was unlikely to be infectious.

Lateral flow just now is negative but I've got a nervous few days to wait for the ONS PCR result. If that's positive then there's a relatively expensive theatre outing this weekend that is at risk (not quite Aus flights though I know.)

Did you tell the jabbers that you were positive 3 weeks before?

So cloro what ever (the anti malerial) is being touted again as a cure for Omicron variant. FFS.

I did not

Its logical tho and may not reflect what one may first think.

Considering that x amount of ppl are going to die at approx the same rate each year in a population then if a larger procentage of the population is infected with covid like we know is the case today then a larger part of the deaths are going to be counted in the covid death statistics.

So the number was expected to increase regardless if covid was the cause of the death or not sice many more ppl who were about to end their time here is now also infected with covid. If the number did not increase while infection rates were skyrocketing it would mean that less ppl died from covid then previously.

This will continue to be a problem till one can actually determine if covid was the cause or not and i presume thats a long way off.

Problem with that is that if we get a variant that will infect 100% of the population at the same time then all ppl who died will be filed as death with covid even if that particular variant perhaps is just a cold (not saying this one is btw). Statistics..

Excess deaths innit.

Yes that would be the best way to determine the actual count but not fool proof ofc.
The chart that was discussed was the death after 28 days after possitive test hence my point. What does it tell us? Not much without a good mathematician with a lot more data.

And there is no point in worrying over data that was expected and does not really say anything. For all we know it could be an indication that less ppl are dying from covid.

The chart that was discussed was the death after 28 days after possitive test hence my point. What does it tell us? Not much without a good mathematician with a lot more data.

No, the very good mathematicians with access to a lot more data are telling us those charts clearly demonstrate we're in a really serious and shit situation.

But feel free to think you can read them in any other such way although that smacks very much of "we've had enough of experts" viewpoint. Ultimately they do not need to prove their case to each and every person in the country for it to be true.

...
Statistics..

My daughter is 12 and has a better grasp of statistics and causality than the utter shite posted above. Enough.

Eh what? If i posted shit why dont u explain to my where im incorrect instead of that nonsense.

Simply put, there are different stats where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate as a cause, and those stats correlate quite clearly with the general "deaths within 28 days" stats. The bar for "Covid mentioned on a death certificate" is quite a bit higher than just "tested positive at some point".

You can see all of the stats here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

3rd graph down is where the death certificate specifically mentions Covid. This isn't just someone who happened to have died of something unrelated but tested positive sometime in the past. (Note that the x axis on the graph is slightly out of alignment with the graphs above and also there is a greater lag on death registrations as these take longer to process than a simple "did person X who has just died have a positive Covid test in the last 28 days" graphs.

It may seem that there should be fewer deaths that result specifically from Covid than general "died having tested positive for Covid" but it's trickier than that. Ironically the numbers of deaths that have Covid on the death certificate are higher but that's because Covid is a contributory factor in many deaths. It may not be the Covid infection itself that kills you, but the after effects of a particularly nasty respiratory virus that has the capacity to cause huge damage to the human body that lasts a long time after the infection has gone.

Fundamentally, the questions you seem to be asking (or the ideas you are proposing) have been asked (and assessed) by people with far greater minds (and access to the data) than you and I and the simple answer is that there is no great conspiracy. Covid is killing more people than would have died without it being around, and it will continue to do so for some time, and not just because people are dying in 28 days since having it.

Maybe I'm missing the subtle point you're trying to make, if so I apologise and can you enlighten me.

Yes well perhaps u should not be so fast to dismiss discussions or viewpoints that u dont like or did not thought of or whatever as those of a loon thinking covid is a hoax. For the record i had covid for 8 weeks and was off work for 10 weeks or similar as it took me that long to get my energies back to normal which are needed in my job. So I dont have a lot of experience that tells me covid is nothing to worry about, if u think that i have such an agenda u r just wrong.

Yes the covid by certificate is better but dont know enough about how that comes about to have an opinon on the accuracy nor at what accuracy those can be determined.

Regardless my comment was made in regard to the death by 28 days after covid test chart and how it could potentially be misleading.

And my point was about interesting math not about wether or not those reported for covid death actually died from it or not.

Im tired and need to go to bed so here is an example (that may very well have more than a few holes in it but just to explain what i was trying to get at).

Let say a Country of 10 million population has an average death count of approx 120.000 ppl per year (probably a little high). Or roughly 329 per day.

Lets say that covid variant delta infects roughly 10% of the 10 million during the year = 1 million ppl.

Death rate of delta in this example is 1% on average. Thats 10000 ppl a year or roughly 27 per day.

So we have the 329 ppl who die of normal causes + the roughly 27 or so that dies from delta every day. Out of these 356 ppl 10% will test positive for covid. So we ad approx 36 to the covid death per day count with this variant on average.

Now comes the new x variant that infects roughly 25% of the same population. That’s 2.5 million ppl per year or 6849 per day.

Lets say this variant only has an average death rate of 0.1% of the infected.
Thats 2500 per year or roughly 7 per day.

So we have the 329 ppl who dies of normal causes + the 7 or so that dies from covid. Out of these 336 ppl 25% will test positive for covid so we ad approx 84 ppl to the covid death tally per day.

So in this example we have delta who looks to cause about 27 death per day beeing reported as a far less dangerous variant over all for society than the new variant x that is only responsible for about 7 death per day when Delta is in fact approx 4 times as dangerous in terms of deaths.

Surely this can’t be the best way to present statistics to society. It just scares ppl when there is no need for it. Again im tired (and human) so could be something im overlooking but to me it seemed interesting.