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Have you looked at the data for South Africa? I think we can say with a very high level of confidence that excess deaths are far below prior waves.
I genuinely feel like I am being gaslighted. Stonehedge posted something that was wrong (direct quote
“ excess deaths in South Africa hit 30% recently, nearly at the level they had in January 2021”). I asked for the source data, which showed that claim was wrong.It really does seem that people’s commitment to an accurate representation of data only goes one way.
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A bit, fingers crossed everything turns out wonderful and we can all get to the street fucking, seems a bit early to call that for here or the rest of the world though, there's still a fair few people dying more than they would do otherwise, and that's after lots of the people who are more likely to die have died and many of the rest have some kind of protection from previous infection or vaccine or both.
snottyotter
I guess you'd want to be pretty certain that was the case and why, because if you start shouting that everything is wonderful and only lots of people are dying, but not as many as before there's a pretty good chance you could make things worse if everyone starts running into the street and fucking because it's all over, whereas if you're cautious and wrong, or just overcautious then you might accidently make things the same.