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Can you advise what the data source is for the ‘50% more pathogenic than the original virus’ statement is?
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Can you advise what the data source is for the ‘50% more pathogenic than the original virus’ statement is?
There are various ways of calcuating it. Following figures are all in the immune naive:
Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron reduced 41% vs Delta. But Delta vs Alpha increased risk 52%. And Alpha vs wild type increased risk 62%. = Net +51%
Sources:
Omicron: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-50-severity-omicron/
Delta: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00475-8/fulltext#sec1
Wild: https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/4662827/You can use different sources for hospitilisation rates and different methods to calculate this. The range of results is Omicron being anything from 13% more likely to hospitalise than wild all the way up to twice as much. 51% is the figure you arrive at if you use only UK sources.
Stonehedge
Or as doctors and scientists call it, the precautionary principle, which has done the human race pretty well over the last century or so.