Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

over 50% more pathogenic

What does it mean?

50% more likely to cause disease?

Can you provide a source for both of these?

Are those numbers for the totals over year in south africa? You say januari but thats in big contrast with this article from just a few days ago where its says the excess death during peaks of omnicron is only about 20% of the peaks during jan 2021.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/south-african-excess-deaths-fall-mirroring-covid-death-decline

So much misinformation in this thread.

Edit. tbat spelling looks so wrong btw.

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Latest Covid19 Actuary report I’d suggest.
Edit Link https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1479712888797511681?s=20

So much miss-information in this thread.

Will try and update weekly

Per that report, excess deaths in SA are nowhere near January or July 2021 peaks.

I think you are misreading what Stonehedge said.

He said this:

Apparently excess deaths in South Africa hit 30% recently, nearly at the level they had in January 2021

What have I misunderstood?

Apologies. It was a retweeted quote (that I saw in passing to reading the report), that on inspection appears not to be accurate.

For reference, this is the data on the Covid actuary report:

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If one is keen to counter misinformation it is good to ensure accuracy in one’s own posts.

Actually we have misread the tweet. I assume E&W is England and Wales.

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I haven’t misread anything. I hadn’t even seen that tweet.

Hopefully the above clarifies.

Now I have read the tweet, it fits completely into the pattern of negative sensationalism that a sub set of people on twitter are keen to push at all times.

It has been written in a way that is almost intentionally misleading, as is apparent the moment you look at the data.

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I’d agree that there has been a view to lean towards worst of predictions.

I don’t think it’s fair to say that of the tweet. If it stated England and Wales it would read far clearer.

The tweet is ok, but at least two people (yourself and stonehedge) both managed to completely misread it? At the very least it is poorly written.

It’s slightly more complex than that but agreed it could be clearer.
Not helped by me eating and posting, post ride :-)

Some people appear to be disappointed that excess deaths are nowhere near prior peak levels (in either SA or the UK). Specious data comparisons won't change that.

Some people appear to be disappointed that excess deaths are nowhere near prior peak levels

That's a shitty opinion, I think people are just wanting to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best, because lives are at stake and it's better to be nicely surprised things aren't as bad rather than the other way round.

Then why not not post honestly about the data? Like, hey great news guys, excess deaths are way below prior waves!