Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Is it not still going up?

Those last three dots are below the peak?
Unless I’m misreading it?

You are right, but usual caveats on data accuracy, volatility etc. I wouldn’t call any pattern at this stage.

Quite, hence my original question, will we have a second peak?

8 days in to my partner's isolation and I've just tested positive. Another week indoors.

More concerning is whether my 60yo parents who we're staying with will dodge it or not. Seems less likely now.

I was regaling my mate yesterday with the story someone shared here about an aged relative who took the C on an LFT as meaning 'Clear' and threw them away before waiting to see if another line appeared. Turns out he and his wife have been doing the same since Day 1 ffs.

Yeah I saw that. Just thought the chart on the guardian showed admissions still on the way up

Perhaps but it was more a discussion on the graph against the prediction, that’s been discussed over the last few pages might be further back than that even.

When ordering LFDs it's best not to keep refreshing the static "we don't have any deliver slots" page and expecting it to change. (You have to go back a page and try the "Start Now" button again.

(Got some more ordered in the end, gave a box to neighbour yesterday as they had run out and needed to test the kids before they went back to school.)

took the C on an LFT as meaning 'Clear' and threw them away before waiting to see if another line appeared. Turns out he and his wife have been doing the same since Day 1 ffs.

FWIW, most experiences seem to indicate that a positive "T" line appears at the same time as the "C" line. Of course this may not always be true.

Any experiences on here?

My wife’s recent was T before C.

Any experiences on here?

Yeah - partner had it and tested positive 6 days running over Xmas - on none of those days was the second line immediate. Have heard from friends about seeing an almost immediate second line though.

Good call - was just successful BTW - some available now.

Any experiences on here?

We've only had one positive case in the house in all this time. When daughter first tested positive the T line was visible before the fluid had even got as far as the C line. Very strong positive, she must have been shitting out virus from everywhere.

Second test a few days later they appeared at the same time. Still a strong positive.

Third test (near the end of isolation) the T appeared a good few minutes after the C line had, and then the T was very faint. So a weak positive (but still a positive).

Reading how lateral flows work should help understand the different response times/reactions. Had a good link some time ago but can't find it now, will dig in history.

will we have a second peak?

I'm not sure I understand. We haven't had our first peak yet! Its only London that has peaked.

So those three are just a blip you think?

wewilknowmoreintwoweeks.jpg

I'd put money on it.

In some parts of the North and Midlands, 30% of test results are taking 4 to 6 days to come back. The data lag is real.

Are hospitalisations tests in with these??

You know he is talking about the LSHTM hospital admissions model?

You know he is talking about the LSHTM hospital admissions model?

I do. and I'm confused, because doesn't the LSHTM model show likely peaking in second half of Jan or early Feb? And at the moment, the model is looking pretty good...

Edit: I appreciate that the last three dots are not tracking with previous rates.

That’s it. His point is the last three dots are a downwards trajectory away from the model curve. I think you probably need to look at the data over a longer period.

When I say there are lags up North, this is what I mean.

They even added a couple of cases to Christmas Day yesterday...a 12 day lag.

1 Attachment

So did the people swab correctly?

Latest update; 🤞🤞🤞🤞

1 Attachment