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Where u not following SAGE modelling?
The SAGE modelling doesn't go down to the level of predicting which day a region peaks. I was just being nerdy with other data nerd friends really. The question was, peak on the 29th December or mid to late this week. I thought the latter, based on tests taken and case confirmed uncoupling from the 21st Dec onwards.
London didn't behave like it did last Christmas in terms of case levels. I think the big thing I missed was how many Londoners left the city to visit friends and family compared to last year, which would explain why tests taken dropped so much while positivity continued to sky rocket for the people who remained.
Latest ONS stats show that London has almost certainly peaked for cases (barring any increase from kids being back at school). My theory/speculation was invalid.