-
I was looking at the hospital data, not case data. I guess there could be a holiday effect around hospital data (in the reporting).
Sure, but in the past, case rates have been a good predictor of the admissions peak.
I don't think the festive effect explains the situation in London. Every year the NHS sees a drop in admissions over the festive period but this was much bigger in London than elsewhere this time round.
That said, it has been over 15 years since it was last my job to analyse NHS admissions and its something I only ever did for London trusts so its perfectly possible that London has more of a festive effect than other regions (perhaps more people leaving the city to visit family?!)
Anyway, I'm still siding with London peaking with cases later this week but its an unpopular and disputed view. Next week I'll either be smug or have egg on my face.
You are reading a single comment by @Stonehedge and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
Stonehedge
I was looking at the hospital data, not case data. I guess there could be a holiday effect around hospital data (in the reporting).