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I was looking at the hospital data, not case data. I guess there could be a holiday effect around hospital data (in the reporting).
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I was looking at the hospital data, not case data. I guess there could be a holiday effect around hospital data (in the reporting).
Sure, but in the past, case rates have been a good predictor of the admissions peak.
I don't think the festive effect explains the situation in London. Every year the NHS sees a drop in admissions over the festive period but this was much bigger in London than elsewhere this time round.
That said, it has been over 15 years since it was last my job to analyse NHS admissions and its something I only ever did for London trusts so its perfectly possible that London has more of a festive effect than other regions (perhaps more people leaving the city to visit family?!)
Anyway, I'm still siding with London peaking with cases later this week but its an unpopular and disputed view. Next week I'll either be smug or have egg on my face.
Stonehedge
No, I don't think it was.
There's still a lot of debate on whether London is peaking right now or whether there is something weird about the data. Positivity still climbing, tests taken have plummeted...but case numbers have dropped by way too much over the period between xmas and NY to be explained away by fewer people taking tests or any of the "festive effects" or day of week effects.
Its a real opinion divider. Will be interesting to see how the next week pans out. If you just look at the numbers, London has peaked. If you look at how the numbers relate to each other, the pattern isn't quite how you'd expect.